TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0de5…d01c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: NFL, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-48.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$475
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$334Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$150.04
Will Jesse Armstrong - Mountainhead win Best Director of a Movie for Television at the 78th DGA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$19.38
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$27.81
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$220.29
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$115.2
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$127.31
Will Yorgos Lanthimos be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$38.94
Will Come See Me in the Good Light be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$430Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$430.28
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$166.38
Will Wunmi Mosaku be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$250.08
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick58cpaid-51.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$408Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$407.68
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$119
Military action against Iran ends by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$695Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$231.5
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$418Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$418.38
US strikes Yemen by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$59.18
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$115.44
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$82.36
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+75.4%+$115.24
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+78.6%+$69.52
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+108.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-01-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+26.6%+$68.88
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$609Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+51.5%+$313.48
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+257.1%+$293.76
Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$411Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$410.94
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+35.7%+$100.73
Will Paris Saint-Germain advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$52.48
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$510.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahcebacked Olympiacos B.C. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+99.2%+$220.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Charlton Athletic FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+98.4%+$72.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Evansville Aces: O/U 142.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$646Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$347.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$74.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tyler1 shave his head by June 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$202.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Major Space Weather event this week? (March 22-28)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$854Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$853.96
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.