AI · resolved market
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8773f0baf9f29fb6164eca943b5977752b31ed855f8c660f38b2d86a771498c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $205,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 11,794$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.59 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 0c | 11,504$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 1c | 8,461$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 4c | 7,398$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.72 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 6,457$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 1c | 6,361$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…5cbebacked Yes | 7c | 5,856$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 5,546$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.79 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 10c | 4,469$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.55 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,997$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x294d…b362backed Yes | 10c | 3,399$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -81%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,928$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…c767backed Yes | 0c | 2,911$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 4c | 2,696$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 1c | 2,590$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -72%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 2,442$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,272$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 8c | 2,268$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.61 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Yes | 3c | 2,035$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 4c | 2,029$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.09 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 2,006$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 7c | 1,683$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.97 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 1,643$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,639$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa459…7dd6backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,407$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…2428backed Yes | 9c | 1,333$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,278$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…f6b8backed Yes | 11c | 1,168$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 1,123$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.03 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,040$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9060…3766backed Yes | 4c | 1,033$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…ca94backed Yes | 6c | 979.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked Yes | 16c | 866$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 846.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 5c | 816.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf9…2fd9backed Yes | 3c | 799.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 5c | 790.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…975ebacked Yes | 16c | 745$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de5…d01cbacked Yes | 16c | 721$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 696.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe57e…23a5backed Yes | 11c | 608$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…4557backed Yes | 11c | 602$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8df…74efbacked Yes | 4c | 500.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072c…0b1fbacked Yes | 11c | 500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…9b59backed Yes | 4c | 490.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 6c | 483.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 479.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ea…d9babacked Yes | 11c | 460$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 4c | 406.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e1…8c19backed Yes | 6c | 380.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.57per pick | 26cpaid | +419.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…09d4backed Yes | 13c | 373.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…3377backed Yes | 16c | 336.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 16c | 314$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 16c | 303$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 283.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed Yes | 18c | 277.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 12c | 276.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…18f0backed Yes | 19c | 242.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec4…226fbacked Yes | 11c | 228$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…bed2backed Yes | 16c | 226.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c3…bc32backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…036abacked Yes | 19c | 172.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…5ba8backed Yes | 17c | 150.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…7631backed Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b3…dacbbacked Yes | 15c | 142.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8906…7b41backed Yes | 16c | 128.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…f103backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…5d90backed Yes | 10c | 115.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…feafbacked Yes | 13c | 113.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7052…0db8backed Yes | 18c | 109.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6e…ea20backed Yes | 19c | 102.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…0fb1backed Yes | 15c | 100.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…2425backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…df4abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…15c1backed Yes | 22c | 61.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 33.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?this page
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?Yes won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.