TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$427,050
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$497,289

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $427,050 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 323 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c9,564$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.721,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked No1c9,477$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.14150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe153…ba59backed Yes73c8,869$6,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,355.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed No23c7,831$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,811.488815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ca…04f5backed No0c7,083$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes46c6,837$3,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,720.625016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b30…29a4backed Yes65c5,000$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,750742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No4c4,086$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.9521713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc426…69d5backed Yes74c4,035$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.74977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes56c3,773$2,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651.9810126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No18c3,018$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.384619.6%9 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-64.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5eb2…9f23backed Yes78c2,893$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc96c…61b5backed No15c2,885$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-57.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No1c2,154$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.982560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No2c2,101$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.782522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No3c2,100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x555f…9525backed Yes72c2,085$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x064a…6007backed No48c2,065$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.04520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-70%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed No17c2,059$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.253925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No13c1,647$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.8326312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No23c1,600$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.991250%6 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No25c1,595$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.8720418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5351…c7edbacked Yes79c1,551$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.85633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-51.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No41c1,510$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.3420148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No44c1,384$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.7511841.5%49 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6040…4c57backed Yes61c1,311$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes62c1,224$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.194360.5%26 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd6…a888backed Yes71c1,139$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.673076.7%23 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes12c1,000$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.484818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed Yes10c999.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.983426.5%9 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+72.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No5c982.43$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.264325.6%11 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed Yes22c965.9$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.462425%6 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7d2…39f0backed Yes59c957$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.371145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed No8c945.02$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.41711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed Yes16c943.35$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.356338.1%24 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked No4c938.52$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.491020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes68c934.76$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.389447.9%45 W · 49 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No26c908.29$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.5725122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No3c898.71$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.593042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes4c895.06$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.212003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No22c884.33$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.978247.6%39 W · 43 L+19.9wins+0.24per pick23cpaid+108.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No25c869.71$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.0340712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No3c829.43$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.592792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde2b…73a0backed Yes12c795$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.61643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+49.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe829…2e6ebacked Yes80c708.81$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.815100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+88%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6cb7…3b83backed Yes75c685.62$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb86e…e0ecbacked No41c660$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.61136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6172…bb67backed Yes72c622.2$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.991080%8 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+276.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xb2a2…9f1ebacked Yes64c620.15$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.733100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed Yes7c599.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.996010%6 W · 54 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ab…bf2bbacked Yes66c563.17$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.59560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes67c552.12$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.7225837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes56c550$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2424729.8%14 W · 33 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No5c530.4$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.81867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf4…4dcebacked Yes77c526.52$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f75…550abacked No45c509.1$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes39c504.78$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.541338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick28cpaid-17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b84…c76abacked Yes74c501.93$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.93475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x563a…f578backed No5c500.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.77120%0 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde0c…a715backed Yes80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+47.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No45c478.81$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.5914643.8%64 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc79f…e3febacked No3c476.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0290%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24d7…c655backed Yes79c474.78$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a75…447abacked Yes16c464.38$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.02450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No6c458.27$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.09545.6%3 W · 51 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-69.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc974…eb16backed Yes69c450$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1411050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96b5…0821backed Yes9c449.66$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.661723.5%4 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick10cpaid+94.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa940…b81bbacked Yes72c434.76$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.73633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x375e…6c94backed Yes74c433.48$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.67540%2 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick70cpaid-46.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa05…fed7backed Yes64c431.73$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.732152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadcd…29e9backed Yes72c425.57$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.56862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e78…04a7backed Yes73c424.41$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.591010%1 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick28cpaid-86.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0327…b062backed Yes77c404.99$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.08250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No5c401.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.72150%0 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb93…3afebacked No3c400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked No26c400$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1034148.8%20 W · 21 L+7.0wins+0.17per pick32cpaid+56.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xedcd…a1c7backed Yes79c398.66$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.74450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x837d…8a0dbacked Yes21c397.71$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.19425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc77…08a4backed Yes69c381.74$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.74580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe24a…fc69backed Yes60c377$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f0f…98e8backed No40c372.12$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.851216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-47.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes66c370.95$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.011369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.1wins0.00per pick69cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb315…d6c9backed Yes41c370$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick53cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6674…6d3abacked No28c366.26$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed No20c340.9$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.612222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-58.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c43…cf02backed Yes71c338.52$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.735100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No9c336.53$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6911124.3%27 W · 84 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5243…1aa6backed Yes6c333.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,566.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2f0…1326backed Yes62c322.75$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.754100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+121.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb4b…5166backed Yes64c313.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7593…e677backed No20c308$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.841233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d1c…f13cbacked No44c306.98$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.23520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-47.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce60…6705backed Yes59c300.03$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.824837.5%18 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes76c298.53$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.7257426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc006…036abacked Yes21c297$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.38825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No12c292.78$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3928826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dce…4682backed Yes52c287.67$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.923625%9 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No52c282.97$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.944944.9%22 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c4…8487backed Yes71c281.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes50c280.45$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.296753.7%36 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.