AI · resolved market
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d53d12e1771ecfe5bd8c7685e097dcdaabeaa3e84f3002792d64e59237f33c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $352,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $286,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $352,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 291 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 3c | 20,680$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.19 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 1c | 20,520$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.95 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 26c | 11,035$2,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,899.13 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 9c | 9,992$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.51 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…48acbacked Yes | 74c | 7,120$5,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,236.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…ba88backed Yes | 11c | 6,405$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +189.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Yes | 22c | 5,682$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.09 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Yes | 1c | 5,655$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 5,440$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.59 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 4,965$3,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,819.22 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca53…50cabacked Yes | 1c | 4,705$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…ad49backed Yes | 68c | 3,586$2,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,426.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…1979backed Yes | 19c | 2,850$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 2,802$2,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.19 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.17 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed Yes | 4c | 2,371$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 2,200$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 2,200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044a…f35ebacked Yes | 40c | 1,953$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 28c | 1,912$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.89 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 26c | 1,853$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.38 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…305bbacked Yes | 64c | 1,742$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb44e…681abacked Yes | 33c | 1,716$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…8c8ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,689$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.08 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,619$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 51c | 1,584$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.94 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…2d0bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,581$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a2…dc15backed Yes | 1c | 1,541$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 60c | 1,504$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.93 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 73c | 1,500$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 1,404$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.57 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a71…d71dbacked Yes | 36c | 1,354$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked No | 12c | 1,310$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70d5…3a73backed No | 15c | 1,282$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.49 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.50per pick | 33cpaid | +243.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64cc…0da1backed Yes | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…9861backed Yes | 42c | 1,149$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x943b…fe84backed Yes | 77c | 1,105$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d03…ef8ebacked No | 74c | 1,094$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 29c | 1,090$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.7 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 14c | 1,087$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.85 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…514cbacked Yes | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed Yes | 7c | 999.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed No | 24c | 956$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…2dcfbacked Yes | 38c | 912.05$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…e84dbacked Yes | 54c | 900.24$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9a…6fb2backed No | 15c | 856$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33b…2372backed Yes | 1c | 826.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 789.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 65c | 785.72$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…7631backed Yes | 7c | 774$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 18c | 769.3$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.07 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 62c | 749.81$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.44 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…e6cebacked No | 13c | 738$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.06 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 38cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 721.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 4c | 699.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…08cbbacked No | 12c | 696$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff8d…93fcbacked Yes | 48c | 680$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3314…a8c7backed Yes | 78c | 642.12$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 57cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0016…1b7abacked Yes | 26c | 624$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x779d…169fbacked Yes | 50c | 621.02$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 28c | 599.01$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.81 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 593.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 67c | 558.96$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.55 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614a…aa29backed Yes | 76c | 558.5$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 63c | 546.57$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.4 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 27c | 544.31$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.04 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…c22abacked No | 15c | 538$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f5…fc74backed Yes | 15c | 529.44$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7833…d56cbacked No | 17c | 526.54$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…439ebacked Yes | 40c | 505.23$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…5889backed Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec4…226fbacked Yes | 57c | 499.98$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 12c | 499.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.99 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed Yes | 37c | 499.98$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 31c | 499.89$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.64 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2e…fe02backed Yes | 27c | 497$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…6e2ebacked No | 73c | 497$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.19 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…5d90backed No | 44c | 487.92$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.94 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 41c | 483.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4092…f145backed Yes | 20c | 475.06$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1697…4cf6backed No | 15c | 459$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 22c | 441.75$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.07 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19a1…7f20backed Yes | 7c | 440.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed Yes | 26c | 439$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…42d5backed Yes | 42c | 433.62$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.75 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…bf2bbacked Yes | 42c | 426.11$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 45c | 426$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.7 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 75c | 420$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked Yes | 44c | 399.98$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…0d52backed No | 15c | 393$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.05 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.35per pick | 42cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe224…6e71backed Yes | 12c | 351.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 43c | 347.16$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e9…5493backed Yes | 12c | 345.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +195.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…108cbacked Yes | 68c | 333$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked No | 12c | 329$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.52 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed No | 15c | 321$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.85 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 35c | 319.74$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.85 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…036abacked Yes | 34c | 314.54$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…4146backed No | 15c | 292$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?this page
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?Yes won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.