TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xdc9e…ba88

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
49
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
CS2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Legacy (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,099Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,098.86
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Legacy - Map 2 Winnerbacked Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$3,500
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$444Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$444.2
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit - Map 2 Winnerbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$805Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$805
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,620Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,620
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,400Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$3,599.99
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FURIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$450
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,790Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,790
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$790Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$790
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked GamerLegion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$151
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+216.1%+$698.79
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$368Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+43.4%+$159.5
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,695Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,695.42
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$6,737Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$6,737.48
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$579Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$578.94
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$3,033Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$3,032.56
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,245Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,244.57
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+35.1%+$35.36
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+25%+$500
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$7,125Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$2,375
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$3,120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$880
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+189.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,990Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,990.18
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$2,578Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+1,127.9%+$29,075.67
Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.42
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+1,150%+$4,599.98
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$9,967Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$9,966.63
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$678Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$678.03
Will Claude 5 be released on February 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+25%+$20
GPT-5.3 released by February 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$2,410Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$2,410
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$421Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$420.7
All 9 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+48.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Cricket — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2last resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,650Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,649.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.