Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8665b3478441a515c7e5432b7e72f1e9466b6a9fad14e5922c8297faf3397622
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $706,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $594,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $706,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 26c | 57,535$15,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,123.08 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe51b…aaf4backed No | 0c | 50,472$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…4b33backed No | 0c | 45,082$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2c…898abacked No | 0c | 40,906$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…abe9backed No | 0c | 22,350$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0806…06d2backed No | 0c | 19,653$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd400…51b0backed No | 0c | 19,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…f009backed No | 0c | 18,430$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…ad74backed No | 0c | 18,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 29c | 10,893$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200.08 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…b9c9backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +270.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48eb…4addbacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked No | 1c | 9,537$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.47 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4672…efa9backed No | 0c | 8,833$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes | 10c | 7,799$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,017.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 13c | 6,868$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.7 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1faf…3b02backed No | 0c | 6,090$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 1c | 5,520$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe632…ec0ebacked No | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,617.02 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…ba88backed No | 2c | 5,000$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 5c | 4,985$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.77 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc9…c9cfbacked No | 0c | 4,970$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…b97dbacked No | 1c | 4,889$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c7…bef9backed No | 31c | 4,486$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…c6f1backed Yes | 11c | 4,140$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,667.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 32cpaid | +291%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked Yes | 55c | 4,127$2,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14b…1ad3backed No | 18c | 4,020$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…fb86backed No | 0c | 3,795$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40e…ebf5backed Yes | 77c | 3,535$2,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.2 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -7.6wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x038e…9d60backed Yes | 48c | 3,446$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,781.73 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,421$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,215.31 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe413…32d3backed Yes | 27c | 2,569$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,879.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 11c | 2,476$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,203.68 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…7dd6backed No | 1c | 2,270$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090f…312fbacked Yes | 23c | 2,203$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 42cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…5661backed No | 8c | 2,140$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.48 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb667…5c50backed No | 1c | 2,122$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd2…e477backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked No | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 1,914$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20cd…940abacked No | 2c | 1,874$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x294d…b362backed Yes | 9c | 1,854$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,689.11 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +90%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…ceebbacked No | 20c | 1,729$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.56 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +9.3wins | +0.32per pick | 33cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x36ec…0a8fbacked Yes | 74c | 1,726$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4742…6576backed No | 2c | 1,657$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…8bbbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,631$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,392.72 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd1…7731backed No | 4c | 1,420$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…8a83backed No | 7c | 1,374$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 69c | 1,329$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.17 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,179$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…ebefbacked Yes | 9c | 1,177$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.96 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d5…1b17backed No | 15c | 1,147$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -80%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…b80ebacked No | 5c | 1,100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes | 8c | 1,062$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.01 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes | 62c | 1,059$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.54 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 3c | 1,040$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…e7fabacked Yes | 4c | 1,025$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +1,181.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed No | 75c | 1,008$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce7e…e65fbacked No | 6c | 1,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 15c | 1,000$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…bf1dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +402.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…6b27backed No | 5c | 999.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…4d61backed Yes | 25c | 998.78$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1146…0503backed No | 1c | 986.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc1…2932backed No | 8c | 943.48$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd59b…5160backed Yes | 46c | 912.94$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8aa…1342backed Yes | 49c | 888$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4409…a845backed No | 4c | 836.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 823.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…6b0bbacked No | 1c | 821.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 2c | 800$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…db57backed Yes | 27c | 799$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…43c9backed Yes | 26c | 761.13$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.88 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 8c | 734.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa12e…21c4backed No | 5c | 677.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 8c | 602.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.95 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2716…d52bbacked Yes | 34c | 596.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked No | 4c | 590.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2658…4d53backed Yes | 3c | 577.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +2,786.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 34c | 577.03$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.6 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 34c | 562.52$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.71 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked No | 33c | 541.43$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.96 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 72c | 531.69$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.07 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 52c | 518.97$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.34 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90bc…a3ecbacked Yes | 46c | 509.72$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…d808backed No | 45c | 500$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed Yes | 8c | 500$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.5 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…12c2backed Yes | 23c | 489.36$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +338.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf717…51e2backed Yes | 58c | 479.64$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…b519backed Yes | 22c | 475.67$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4f…6232backed Yes | 57c | 472.66$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.2 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb337…ee4abacked Yes | 32c | 467.23$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4938…4d58backed Yes | 69c | 451.3$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.13 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb34…a1cdbacked No | 41c | 423.31$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb5…8bd4backed Yes | 60c | 417.65$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…e1cbbacked Yes | 8c | 411.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +95%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…c52bbacked No | 49c | 406.28$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…11e3backed No | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,600 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,700 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.