Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b349aaea59af2f98428d3ddd192c9bcb61ea21c334f0956519a8fd93cebaffd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,001,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,054,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,001,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 511 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7277…ab80backed Yes | 70c | 22,938$16,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,145.84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…b16fbacked Yes | 6c | 22,013$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…8f2bbacked No | 69c | 21,078$14,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,553.94 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 52c | 19,475$10,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,420.98 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…4a37backed No | 60c | 18,284$10,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,402.27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 37c | 13,779$5,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,097.71 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe413…32d3backed Yes | 2c | 12,871$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 15c | 12,383$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,832.77 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc294…9869backed Yes | 5c | 12,177$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.01 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37bc…ae0ebacked Yes | 8c | 11,896$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb763…d3a5backed Yes | 42c | 10,420$4,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,332.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d36…556dbacked Yes | 11c | 10,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 9,808$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.73 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 34c | 7,583$2,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,981.17 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11d5…1b17backed Yes | 15c | 7,575$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -80%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 2c | 7,014$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.32 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…fb86backed Yes | 2c | 6,757$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.98 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 1c | 6,702$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 6,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes | 1c | 6,194$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 73c | 5,839$4,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.03 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +203.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cd…77c1backed Yes | 68c | 5,778$3,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,913.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…43c9backed Yes | 5c | 5,724$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7f…2352backed Yes | 6c | 5,681$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…285dbacked Yes | 12c | 5,631$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc72…1a18backed Yes | 11c | 5,513$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 6c | 5,253$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.13 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdf…0d0ebacked Yes | 63c | 4,909$3,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,077.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…6b68backed Yes | 3c | 4,874$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae02…6d55backed Yes | 27c | 4,677$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.09 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 6c | 4,109$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.4 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd2…32d5backed Yes | 17c | 4,013$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8c…992dbacked Yes | 26c | 3,661$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x259c…7c55backed Yes | 4c | 3,502$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf401…f40dbacked Yes | 29c | 3,432$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e5…393fbacked Yes | 12c | 3,407$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 3c | 3,392$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.25 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…e3e6backed Yes | 6c | 3,332$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…a659backed Yes | 76c | 3,325$2,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,533.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd7…7842backed Yes | 78c | 3,321$2,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,594.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…816ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,278$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.64 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed No | 72c | 3,271$2,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.51 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 19c | 3,015$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.32 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…ba88backed No | 73c | 3,010$2,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed No | 38c | 3,000$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,866 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,986$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.1 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 2,875$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.17 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…e455backed Yes | 77c | 2,866$2,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,212.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…db57backed Yes | 3c | 2,720$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed No | 22c | 2,708$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,122.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…28dfbacked Yes | 67c | 2,683$1,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,788.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…c6f1backed Yes | 2c | 2,645$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 32cpaid | +291%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0814…b977backed Yes | 68c | 2,608$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,786.09 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1277…6ba0backed Yes | 2c | 2,559$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 75c | 2,553$1,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,908.73 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7011…c6dabacked Yes | 55c | 2,488$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…f6b8backed Yes | 78c | 2,423$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 2,394$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Yes | 8c | 2,262$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…505abacked Yes | 9c | 2,243$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 48c | 2,212$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.34 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,058$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.54 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…1362backed Yes | 31c | 2,028$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…5971backed Yes | 78c | 2,021$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,571.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a2…7c5abacked Yes | 4c | 2,008$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951e…d394backed No | 25c | 1,974$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40e…ebf5backed Yes | 26c | 1,960$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.48 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -7.6wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,953$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.19 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -69%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4566…f265backed Yes | 2c | 1,918$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…7e3dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,896$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,874$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…17e2backed Yes | 21c | 1,867$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.05 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cc…6135backed Yes | 50c | 1,849$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.91 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,842$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.43 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…7dd3backed Yes | 76c | 1,810$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…e9c5backed Yes | 3c | 1,777$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9166…3f01backed Yes | 68c | 1,760$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8590…f9c6backed Yes | 19c | 1,748$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 5c | 1,746$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69bd…2359backed Yes | 11c | 1,725$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac9…2b63backed Yes | 16c | 1,702$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…2cc3backed Yes | 18c | 1,691$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,688$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f33…9eebbacked Yes | 6c | 1,669$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038e…9d60backed Yes | 30c | 1,639$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…914ebacked Yes | 80c | 1,637$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…7a71backed Yes | 80c | 1,512$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 1,511$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.77 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed Yes | 1c | 1,509$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…15bdbacked Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…48cfbacked No | 24c | 1,500$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.4 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.37per pick | 32cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…7101backed Yes | 5c | 1,478$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…3bd2backed Yes | 73c | 1,465$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…2440backed Yes | 10c | 1,434$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…e775backed Yes | 3c | 1,420$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87c…e37bbacked Yes | 71c | 1,407$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,389$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.02 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…6558backed Yes | 21c | 1,382$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.47 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71cc…9144backed Yes | 14c | 1,365$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7e…843dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,351$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,600 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,700 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.