Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a71c08dd84744736baca2181d07fcdfde7d72b96aa1350b5166d40b3e56d6ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a92…e12abacked No | 0c | 26,474$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…fb86backed No | 1c | 7,992$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…2ce6backed No | 1c | 6,125$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c6…da07backed No | 0c | 4,053$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,643$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…93e8backed No | 1c | 2,556$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…c6f1backed Yes | 77c | 2,291$1,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 32cpaid | +291%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 1c | 2,159$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +203.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked No | 1c | 2,099$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 1,517$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…8f2bbacked Yes | 79c | 1,500$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 3c | 1,001$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 999.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c9…dd6fbacked No | 12c | 864.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…63b2backed No | 5c | 513.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd606…2b27backed No | 20c | 498.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 10c | 410$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa033…3be4backed No | 20c | 400$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed Yes | 71c | 399.99$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa905…fd4fbacked No | 28c | 349.48$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a16…ad87backed No | 5c | 271.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…a0c7backed No | 18c | 232.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8937…80d9backed No | 17c | 197.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 9c | 174.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…7f27backed No | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…d932backed No | 21c | 113.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…e122backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…137ebacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6457…5606backed No | 21c | 92.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac9…dfabbacked No | 21c | 85.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb34…a1cdbacked No | 42c | 84.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…1b11backed Yes | 79c | 63.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…547ebacked Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of January?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,600 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,700 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.