Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7771807fe3efcd310376facefbe636e4b42ba72fdfad7a1f0553ad40c74d2ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8553…6b88backed No | 1c | 13,232$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 5,939$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.77 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…5fbabacked No | 1c | 5,057$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…d09abacked No | 1c | 4,021$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 40c | 2,917$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.59 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…6479backed No | 1c | 2,495$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 36c | 2,457$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.75 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5c…8fe2backed No | 0c | 2,389$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked No | 19c | 2,264$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes | 22c | 2,215$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,730.41 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf3…7f89backed Yes | 9c | 2,116$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,916.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 2c | 1,331$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,136$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes | 22c | 934$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 70c | 929$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.76 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 61c | 925.15$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.61 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed No | 30c | 809.76$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.9 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f71…2e46backed No | 39c | 778.02$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa504…be51backed No | 15c | 746.17$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba7…a833backed No | 79c | 699.7$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 56c | 677.89$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.54 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed Yes | 36c | 663.18$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.55 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8c…18fdbacked Yes | 24c | 615.25$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 41c | 582.73$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.23 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…4d61backed Yes | 46c | 556$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…d808backed Yes | 66c | 483.02$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked No | 59c | 477.03$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.23 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038e…9d60backed Yes | 78c | 451.44$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.77 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 23c | 436.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.34 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…8bbbbacked Yes | 23c | 386.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.01 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bc…a3ecbacked Yes | 40c | 345.02$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…5d7bbacked No | 57c | 338.56$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 78c | 330.16$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…ceebbacked No | 23c | 308.85$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.29 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +9.3wins | +0.32per pick | 33cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.64 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 20c | 293.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +291.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 66c | 293.03$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.97 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed Yes | 8c | 287.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.81 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed Yes | 74c | 282.19$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 16c | 277.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.22 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…7c57backed No | 25c | 267.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 16c | 259.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…d54cbacked Yes | 49c | 255.04$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa695…5b1ebacked Yes | 61c | 247.54$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf64…e1efbacked Yes | 17c | 242$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +503.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 28c | 234.88$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4180…84dbbacked No | 40c | 231.75$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…bcbfbacked Yes | 22c | 226$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +356.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…9926backed Yes | 45c | 224.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.67 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed No | 12c | 224.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2716…d52bbacked Yes | 47c | 212.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…2635backed Yes | 8c | 212.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked No | 49c | 205.42$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 18c | 195.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.36 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b67…584fbacked Yes | 25c | 180.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 24cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed No | 74c | 175.78$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.63 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45d8…c847backed Yes | 22c | 173$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…265dbacked No | 61c | 168$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacfe…7ce7backed Yes | 17c | 166.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.67 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf650…6bf8backed Yes | 63c | 157.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…d2babacked Yes | 44c | 147.81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +149.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x202c…7007backed No | 64c | 133$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 55c | 131.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…7c44backed Yes | 16c | 125.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.06 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…0e55backed Yes | 21c | 118.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked No | 49c | 117.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 115.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1877…8b78backed Yes | 29c | 112.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97aa…1f62backed No | 11c | 107.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 69c | 107.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed Yes | 62c | 105.47$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +139.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c7…74e2backed Yes | 43c | 104.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.24per pick | 45cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…0c0dbacked Yes | 20c | 100.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +263.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…b09fbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ece6backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a5…9aadbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +121.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…95aabacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1a07backed No | 20c | 99.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…bd9abacked No | 10c | 99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 39c | 95.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e57…55b7backed Yes | 18c | 92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4566…f265backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…d4eebacked Yes | 64c | 88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f748backed Yes | 18c | 87.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed Yes | 19c | 86.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.61 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5573…6da1backed No | 61c | 86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307e…8118backed Yes | 63c | 84.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 15c | 81.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb641…fc39backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 65c | 78.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 44c | 76.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 34c | 70.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac9…2b63backed Yes | 28c | 67.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…bfc0backed Yes | 38c | 67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4938…4d58backed Yes | 78c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of January?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,600 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,700 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.