Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca404a2d321bd8015930aabf22d622167d0e8b511e65dcd0336157697c1df8df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $236,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $182,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1061…9158backed No | 0c | 30,144$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…2ce6backed No | 1c | 27,905$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…4a37backed No | 1c | 25,085$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x208b…4a1ebacked No | 0c | 11,069$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…da3cbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…0496backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c6…da07backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…fb86backed No | 1c | 6,301$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 2c | 5,637$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.65 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc904…79cfbacked No | 0c | 5,370$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked No | 1c | 5,082$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,205$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked No | 1c | 3,818$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9579…5fb2backed No | 2c | 3,500$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cc…6135backed No | 3c | 2,300$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…93e8backed No | 5c | 2,238$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 1,729$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 1c | 1,651$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 1,606$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…8f2bbacked Yes | 71c | 1,273$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.52 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7582…2497backed No | 1c | 1,038$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ce…f646backed No | 2c | 999.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…a0c7backed No | 2c | 794$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d5…1b17backed No | 22c | 683.45$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -80%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…43c9backed Yes | 74c | 671.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.93 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 4c | 626.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 50c | 509.84$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.88 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4672…efa9backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…d446backed Yes | 21c | 470.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 3c | 465.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6663…6cd9backed No | 79c | 354.52$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c9…dd6fbacked No | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 6c | 241.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 24c | 234.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 6c | 228.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…0e2ebacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac9…2b63backed No | 18c | 167.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 10c | 143.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd606…2b27backed No | 79c | 127.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…8613backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…eac7backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3e…145cbacked Yes | 72c | 99.97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e3…f62bbacked Yes | 58c | 73.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…51b2backed Yes | 42c | 56.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0197…7777backed Yes | 51c | 48.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7057…f998backed Yes | 57c | 32.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 18cpaid | +200.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…d774backed No | 79c | 26.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 80c | 23.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…814fbacked Yes | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…d133backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0806…06d2backed No | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of January?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,600 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,700 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.