Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3a1e2b7a9b2804fa6776653f02a3b190300dc6aebdec6ec91c1923d7d2fd9f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefb0…1c06backed Yes | 0c | 9,727$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd54c…391dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,635$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,709$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…7540backed Yes | 5c | 1,313$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11d5…1b17backed Yes | 4c | 939.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -80%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4391…a3dfbacked Yes | 2c | 895.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…fb86backed Yes | 3c | 794.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d4…475bbacked Yes | 2c | 676.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804f…6a35backed Yes | 6c | 624.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4566…f265backed Yes | 8c | 509.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 16c | 499.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.52 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x716a…5861backed Yes | 6c | 493.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 3c | 390$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 6c | 375.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae02…6d55backed Yes | 3c | 350$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…dff2backed Yes | 5c | 350$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…066fbacked Yes | 45c | 238.81$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…5f5fbacked Yes | 5c | 204.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1a…617fbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612e…8626backed Yes | 8c | 149.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…b3d3backed Yes | 45c | 133.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x588f…07d7backed Yes | 28c | 108.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…6558backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…3a99backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14fb…678abacked Yes | 43c | 51.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x740c…d013backed No | 57c | 51.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 72c | 41.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -69%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a13…ea35backed No | 68c | 29.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3c…0696backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of January?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,600 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,700 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.