Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4add8db0ecb2a10fb18dcec1f812ecd63e5fa789a6f954b99d24e9149ecacec0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $345,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $274,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $345,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa23d…0496backed No | 0c | 32,374$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…a5debacked No | 1c | 25,524$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…4a37backed No | 17c | 17,217$2,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,946.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed No | 0c | 11,025$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 0c | 10,470$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad81…3ffebacked No | 1c | 10,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…2ce6backed No | 15c | 10,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9579…5fb2backed No | 0c | 9,438$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 8,958$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…fb86backed No | 1c | 8,821$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 25c | 8,819$2,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240.98 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 0c | 6,327$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe531…ab84backed No | 0c | 6,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +156.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…b16fbacked Yes | 78c | 5,912$4,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1061…9158backed No | 1c | 5,485$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4742…6576backed No | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…e9d8backed No | 4c | 4,700$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf944…c249backed No | 3c | 4,359$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 73c | 4,322$3,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.62 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa515…fd70backed No | 1c | 4,166$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed No | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked No | 0c | 3,388$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -69%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked No | 1c | 3,275$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc904…79cfbacked No | 0c | 2,953$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed No | 1c | 2,240$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 20c | 1,837$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.05 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…da3cbacked No | 1c | 1,550$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x038e…9d60backed Yes | 74c | 1,400$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 1,400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e8…78dfbacked No | 1c | 1,306$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 958.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked No | 49c | 922.45$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 23c | 858.55$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.26 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9454…7f72backed No | 3c | 800$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed Yes | 75c | 758.29$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.62 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x11d5…1b17backed Yes | 50c | 575.68$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.84 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -80%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…8f2bbacked No | 22c | 506$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 24c | 440.29$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.35 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed No | 3c | 425.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +225.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x711e…77b2backed No | 2c | 425$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 6c | 370.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x560c…bba8backed Yes | 70c | 352.4$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f4…9073backed No | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 338.85$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 3c | 337.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e95…b303backed No | 22c | 322$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 30c | 301$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.46 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 13c | 281.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc40e…ebf5backed Yes | 78c | 261.51$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -7.6wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf023…8e33backed Yes | 79c | 259.05$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…5381backed No | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd606…2b27backed Yes | 49c | 204.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…48cfbacked No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.37per pick | 32cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…9890backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4672…efa9backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 72c | 185.58$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…51b2backed Yes | 19c | 169.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cc…6135backed Yes | 67c | 155.79$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…638cbacked Yes | 78c | 154.79$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked No | 18c | 152.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef96…4ad9backed No | 26c | 149.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0197…7777backed Yes | 74c | 135.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…9d9abacked Yes | 78c | 124.76$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c8…819bbacked No | 29c | 124.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked Yes | 72c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…d990backed Yes | 76c | 109.09$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 21c | 106.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…dcbbbacked Yes | 79c | 106.3$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 12c | 104.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…3e98backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae2…41e5backed Yes | 58c | 101.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…84d7backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ef…9f35backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…2408backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 69cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x143b…1679backed Yes | 71c | 98.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 14c | 91.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…5ccabacked Yes | 76c | 84.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x657e…9fa5backed Yes | 72c | 83.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 16c | 75.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked Yes | 79c | 70.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…479ebacked No | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…d2b3backed Yes | 72c | 69.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fd…4bf8backed No | 31c | 64.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa6…9aafbacked Yes | 70c | 61.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…1c8cbacked No | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…fbe9backed Yes | 73c | 59.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…6558backed Yes | 32c | 58.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0391…7f89backed No | 28c | 52.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d1…939cbacked Yes | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed No | 28c | 48.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…4f8cbacked No | 48c | 45.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…6431backed Yes | 69c | 43.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…50c8backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…b9a7backed Yes | 79c | 39.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bd…af16backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82c3…c05bbacked No | 29c | 36.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21c…c028backed Yes | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…6895backed No | 58c | 34.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 76c | 34.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of January?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,600 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,700 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.