Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b21948b5a3272a05f45078b470818764cacfcfc64c735dba76d63359c2e00f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 7,808$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8493…e006backed Yes | 0c | 7,637$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3da…c244backed Yes | 0c | 6,918$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffc…1787backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…7597backed Yes | 1c | 1,713$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,579$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 7c | 1,384$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…7354backed Yes | 6c | 757.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed Yes | 4c | 683.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…a612backed Yes | 3c | 660.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 13c | 500$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +125.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 22c | 499.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x33da…2c3ebacked Yes | 4c | 312.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 6cpaid | +567.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x504d…dae8backed No | 75c | 286.16$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 7c | 264.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 11c | 180$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0237…e7b2backed No | 80c | 165$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of January?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,600 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,700 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.