Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb42cf911da8aa39a9f634c190120f5c36f7301b69b15d20aa23382ac350b830d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $966,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,045,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $966,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x672f…0af5backed Yes | 13c | 29,953$3,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,867 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 19,837$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.62 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 3c | 18,761$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.97 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcebb…af3bbacked Yes | 3c | 15,543$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x075a…fb98backed Yes | 2c | 15,146$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…6558backed Yes | 2c | 14,715$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.97 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…8086backed Yes | 1c | 14,481$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.77 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8078backed Yes | 1c | 14,002$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…5ce0backed Yes | 1c | 13,633$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…dff2backed Yes | 3c | 13,364$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.12 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b34…66adbacked Yes | 2c | 10,734$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,665$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6101…1278backed Yes | 1c | 10,236$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd2…32d5backed Yes | 12c | 9,239$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 2c | 8,981$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.71 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a2…7c5abacked Yes | 1c | 8,976$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…3c99backed Yes | 8c | 8,549$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…43c9backed Yes | 3c | 7,922$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9367…78e1backed Yes | 8c | 7,733$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 7,193$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.87 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x674c…b60ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,753$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffc…1787backed Yes | 0c | 6,237$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…2dd5backed Yes | 2c | 5,804$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ba…adb3backed Yes | 4c | 5,538$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6a…dd1cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,415$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b37…1ffdbacked Yes | 2c | 5,328$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…2e0abacked Yes | 6c | 5,283$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +151%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…7101backed Yes | 1c | 5,237$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4226…cf11backed Yes | 10c | 5,102$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcea…7a11backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a89…ff1dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,999$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -92.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…dafbbacked Yes | 1c | 4,845$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -6.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…c316backed Yes | 3c | 4,694$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…045abacked Yes | 1c | 4,690$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…ffebbacked Yes | 1c | 4,632$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…fb86backed Yes | 2c | 4,530$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…4a2dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,470$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…9d8dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,464$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bd…2359backed Yes | 3c | 4,265$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe382…f187backed Yes | 1c | 3,929$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7900…1e3ebacked Yes | 7c | 3,874$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,861$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,845$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 3,616$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…bde7backed Yes | 3c | 3,516$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…285dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,455$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f33…9eebbacked Yes | 4c | 3,394$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…539dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,354$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fe…f523backed Yes | 3c | 3,352$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,003$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…8a47backed Yes | 2c | 2,966$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e5…393fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,922$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 2,704$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.22 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e6…ccfdbacked Yes | 6c | 2,630$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 1c | 2,581$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c6…da07backed Yes | 1c | 2,548$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 0c | 2,453$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d54…e1f8backed Yes | 1c | 2,443$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,383$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…a612backed Yes | 0c | 2,284$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd887…4986backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…b595backed Yes | 1c | 2,089$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…505abacked Yes | 10c | 2,078$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -69%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…d60ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…d446backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x285c…0038backed Yes | 1c | 1,972$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x048e…3808backed Yes | 3c | 1,888$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +149%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb337…ee4abacked Yes | 11c | 1,883$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…5986backed Yes | 1c | 1,831$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40c1…c024backed Yes | 1c | 1,787$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a11…4614backed Yes | 1c | 1,768$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,751$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a72…1598backed Yes | 1c | 1,742$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…b3d3backed Yes | 14c | 1,721$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +267.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed Yes | 1c | 1,643$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae02…6d55backed Yes | 3c | 1,624$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3712…0d26backed Yes | 5c | 1,570$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…17e2backed Yes | 5c | 1,524$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d3…1929backed Yes | 4c | 1,452$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb60…3ce8backed Yes | 1c | 1,441$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa60…3cdfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,411$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da4…bb27backed Yes | 1c | 1,405$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb578…fc66backed Yes | 1c | 1,402$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…4f4fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,353$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…8c55backed Yes | 2c | 1,315$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1a…617fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,306$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1a…5bb6backed Yes | 5c | 1,291$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,287$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b91…be14backed Yes | 2c | 1,251$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…76fcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,187$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,159$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f5…1678backed Yes | 9c | 1,155$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…9469backed Yes | 9c | 1,144$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2d…0c61backed Yes | 1c | 1,114$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 1,055$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.21 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x158d…19d5backed Yes | 1c | 1,051$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…b19fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,050$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,600 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,700 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.