Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,700 by end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81706912cde5a98079b64e6dc1d3f5a7e00d9ff44cd4d08f3fcdf2bcb51ee86b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 8,530$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked No | 47c | 6,500$3,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,064.93 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 5,640$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…6479backed No | 0c | 3,771$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked No | 68c | 3,487$2,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,359.46 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 68c | 3,148$2,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.28 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked No | 36c | 2,703$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 73c | 2,514$1,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.47 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…44fabacked Yes | 68c | 2,000$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.69 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No | 2c | 1,816$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e5…66b2backed Yes | 54c | 1,617$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked Yes | 66c | 1,567$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.09 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf915…8720backed No | 34c | 1,497$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes | 40c | 1,424$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…1c8cbacked No | 19c | 1,280$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.57 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 26c | 1,255$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.73 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 71c | 1,169$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.22 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…cae4backed No | 69c | 1,150$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 1,146$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.96 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 25c | 1,131$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.15 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf3…7f89backed Yes | 31c | 1,115$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9065…f13abacked No | 14c | 930.85$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…dbd2backed Yes | 47c | 856.68$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…0b53backed Yes | 30c | 796.64$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc40e…ebf5backed Yes | 65c | 643.21$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.21 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -7.6wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed No | 2c | 631.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 15c | 600.33$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.33 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…50aebacked Yes | 76c | 564.05$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…4006backed Yes | 78c | 562.76$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.94 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 69c | 554.92$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.5 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 60c | 550$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.11 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…5ccdbacked No | 59c | 514.27$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…07b2backed Yes | 67c | 502.47$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.59 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 23c | 494.49$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +291.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f18…171dbacked Yes | 32c | 468.75$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…2635backed Yes | 31c | 467$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba7…a833backed No | 74c | 445.85$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes | 32c | 437.67$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.62 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ec…fb64backed Yes | 50c | 407.63$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…9926backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d3…a6c6backed Yes | 64c | 377.16$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 10c | 366.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ca…0ec2backed No | 28c | 357$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff3…00b3backed Yes | 63c | 356.95$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.07 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a21…c97cbacked Yes | 29c | 349.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +301.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 58c | 349.04$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 19c | 340.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9efb…d189backed Yes | 52c | 339.63$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x337e…bcd3backed Yes | 57c | 333$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…b05fbacked No | 43c | 328.43$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 39c | 315.61$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.58 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…8999backed Yes | 69c | 288.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.86 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 61c | 284.1$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.21 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…7c48backed No | 75c | 266.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 6c | 264.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 21c | 258.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed No | 9c | 256.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 13c | 240.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 35c | 237.71$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacfe…7ce7backed Yes | 45c | 232.16$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.21 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 43c | 223.19$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked No | 10c | 220$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 204.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 25c | 199.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8006…9958backed Yes | 28c | 199.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +89%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 196.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.7 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d8…c847backed No | 65c | 196$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a3…e080backed Yes | 63c | 183.93$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…d54cbacked Yes | 39c | 176.57$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.92 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…261cbacked Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…9a56backed Yes | 32c | 174.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.45per pick | 27cpaid | +164.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x631d…ee60backed Yes | 61c | 167.88$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked No | 29c | 166.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c92…32fdbacked Yes | 30c | 159.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.39 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…ddd5backed Yes | 34c | 154.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.69 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked No | 36c | 150.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 149.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 149.28$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked No | 29c | 149.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 63c | 148.14$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…b634backed Yes | 28c | 147.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x926d…635ebacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3c…833ebacked Yes | 69c | 144.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…6718backed No | 74c | 143.5$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc05b…c081backed No | 53c | 143.03$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bc…a3ecbacked Yes | 51c | 139.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 37c | 137$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…2408backed Yes | 76c | 132.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 69cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…7fa4backed Yes | 30c | 128.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.16 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…58dcbacked Yes | 52c | 125.85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed No | 18c | 122.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 24c | 116.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 10c | 116$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd11…2060backed Yes | 30c | 106.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 74c | 105.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No | 36c | 102.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6051…2503backed Yes | 75c | 102.08$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb641…fc39backed Yes | 30c | 101.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.19 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,700 by end of January?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,600 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.