Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,600 by end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83d3dd2f390dd2115d623024dfdb9d75ec74fac88568de31599a140a73a5f4ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 70c | 6,480$4,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,535.98 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 37c | 5,945$2,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,743.74 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 0c | 5,699$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked No | 36c | 4,000$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked No | 63c | 3,600$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,279.88 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…4d61backed Yes | 30c | 3,400$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,380 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed No | 1c | 2,491$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed Yes | 76c | 2,069$1,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed No | 8c | 1,193$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf3…7f89backed Yes | 74c | 1,149$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 2c | 1,050$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2053…b14abacked Yes | 65c | 719.77$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 3c | 614.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…dbd2backed Yes | 31c | 607.45$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…e84dbacked Yes | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.06 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 11c | 567.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes | 40c | 558.73$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 21c | 551.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.56 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 31c | 548.39$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 18c | 515.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…5ccdbacked No | 18c | 512.33$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff3…00b3backed Yes | 37c | 502.98$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc05b…c081backed No | 42c | 479.67$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 35c | 452.63$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.55 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfb…2615backed No | 38c | 396.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…ee69backed No | 46c | 363.66$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 54c | 349.99$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.5 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 63c | 306.06$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.06 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x052a…4df7backed Yes | 39c | 270$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 248.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 56c | 241.68$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.34 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1120…8f68backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 46c | 218.62$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.05 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f18…171dbacked Yes | 76c | 213.72$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd7…7842backed Yes | 57c | 210.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed No | 27c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -86%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed No | 61c | 200$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed No | 60c | 200$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 29c | 199.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +125.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1d…a1e3backed No | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…8999backed Yes | 42c | 178.91$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.91 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 169.26$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 69c | 153.84$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…9926backed Yes | 68c | 146.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 139.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4b…643abacked Yes | 39c | 126.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a7…1ee5backed No | 29c | 125.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac8…fc51backed No | 55c | 121.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 43c | 117.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -10.0wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…7713backed Yes | 43c | 117.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…d715backed No | 20c | 113.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5c…4ce5backed Yes | 52c | 108.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f748backed Yes | 38c | 92.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…cc3bbacked Yes | 67c | 74.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 70c | 69.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 62c | 69.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 75c | 57.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 57.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd60a…5a90backed Yes | 36c | 55.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 60c | 53.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…0b53backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1659…dce7backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +370.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 29c | 50.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…28febacked No | 39c | 50.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +167%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…b2f8backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 58c | 40.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed No | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…a460backed No | 38c | 39.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0065…a4a4backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +271.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 47c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…934ebacked Yes | 58c | 34.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f8…4efcbacked Yes | 55c | 34.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…38d2backed No | 61c | 32.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fe…4917backed Yes | 73c | 31.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…c99bbacked Yes | 64c | 30.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53aa…7c78backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…bcdcbacked Yes | 50c | 22.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 62c | 20.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…1375backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0878…4a05backed Yes | 58c | 18.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…436fbacked Yes | 57c | 18.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4d…ee51backed No | 60c | 18.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…f1f4backed Yes | 58c | 17.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,600 by end of January?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,700 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.