Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2802d466281ba33be51b4942ab465c753d36e304bbe8e92b40895f8c593300b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7655…5661backed Yes | 1c | 8,231$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…269cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,815$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…ea49backed Yes | 1c | 4,124$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…7597backed Yes | 1c | 3,529$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 9c | 3,048$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.48 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 2c | 2,758$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…0821backed Yes | 2c | 2,329$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 1c | 1,747$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…bf2bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,525$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…ebefbacked Yes | 7c | 1,456$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.33 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57bf…40b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,121$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…7417backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 978.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 961.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 72c | 925.71$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.47 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf3…7f89backed Yes | 15c | 661.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 3c | 461.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cc…9144backed Yes | 4c | 447.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…e1cbbacked Yes | 8c | 441.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +95%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b1…bb91backed No | 54c | 436.96$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 367.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff3…00b3backed Yes | 21c | 349.63$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 32c | 300$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +125.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 290.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 65c | 246.94$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…a612backed Yes | 8c | 236.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedea…a94dbacked Yes | 11c | 223.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1d…a1e3backed Yes | 16c | 220.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 216.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 17c | 201.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33da…2c3ebacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 6cpaid | +567.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2053…b14abacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcd…29eabacked No | 58c | 173.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38d…f678backed Yes | 46c | 128.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb8…a7edbacked No | 52c | 115.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceaa…5e29backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 77c | 75.65$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…47c4backed No | 54c | 74.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af3…fbe5backed No | 77c | 63.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f78…c1a1backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…cf83backed Yes | 52c | 37.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65cb…e3a4backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…2a83backed Yes | 47c | 35.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…30a8backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9100…10f5backed No | 79c | 22.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 54c | 20.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ba…13febacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -12.9wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf439…113cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed No | 70c | 19.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,600 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,700 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of January?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.