TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Legacy (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Legacyof FURIA, Legacy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,116,432
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,172,519

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,116,432 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 659 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd30…f316backed FURIA62c159,959$99,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,125.7112249.2%60 W · 62 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked Legacy38c78,777$29,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,841.7414145.4%64 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x088b…21ccbacked Legacy16c56,550$8,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,593.07650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+56.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked FURIA63c39,252$24,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,738.275,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5901…63a2backed Legacy44c25,046$10,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,061.537041.4%29 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed FURIA64c24,764$15,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,776.721,39638.9%543 W · 853 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked FURIA42c23,168$9,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,627.2672644.4%322 W · 404 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x258c…7c23backed Legacy42c20,800$8,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,063.993360.6%20 W · 13 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+42.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x620b…2e9fbacked FURIA56c17,000$9,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,519.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7876…a162backed Legacy37c15,000$5,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,4501442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3342…f908backed Legacy44c15,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,4001942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3170…c6a0backed Legacy37c15,000$5,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,449.861241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked FURIA57c10,563$6,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,02132348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed FURIA63c10,000$6,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,30017062.9%107 W · 63 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed FURIA61c9,991$6,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,140.137946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ae…8eadbacked Legacy37c9,633$3,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,068.78616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fcd…fbfcbacked Legacy36c9,460$3,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,054.521776.5%13 W · 4 L+4.3wins+0.25per pick51cpaid+42.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed FURIA32c9,049$2,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,855.991,56729.8%467 W · 1,100 L-86.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2829…12a0backed Legacy37c8,503$3,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,378.54520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-45.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89a6…429abacked Legacy42c7,533$3,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,340.441861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed Legacy37c7,300$2,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,598.891662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Legacy66c7,115$4,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,441.551,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Legacy37c7,000$2,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,409.9966551.9%345 W · 320 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa533…acacbacked FURIA64c6,994$4,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,458.923658.5%138 W · 98 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Legacy40c6,879$2,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,096.651,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed FURIA65c6,745$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,400.292,52043%1,084 W · 1,436 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed FURIA63c6,718$4,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,219.972,61051.7%1,349 W · 1,261 L+16.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed FURIA56c6,506$3,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,643.1646149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed FURIA23c6,174$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,397.5830340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Legacy43c6,006$2,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,423.429046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4002…b012backed Legacy38c5,290$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,290.36742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96d7…3a17backed Legacy42c5,250$2,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0451163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Legacy44c5,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80055236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86a4…805abacked FURIA64c5,000$3,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,187.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf8a…2d3cbacked Legacy16c5,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2002941.4%12 W · 17 L+4.8wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+84.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdc9e…ba88backed FURIA22c5,000$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.861127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Legacy35c5,000$1,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,269.9961047.7%291 W · 319 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed FURIA56c5,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.9726952.8%142 W · 127 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Legacy37c4,281$1,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,696.331,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Legacy38c4,210$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,61021445.8%98 W · 116 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Legacy43c4,000$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2807766.2%51 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe973…ab15backed Legacy37c4,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5203100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+114.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Legacy37c3,834$1,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,415.4121842.7%93 W · 125 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed Legacy43c3,820$1,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,192.825248.8%123 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Legacy40c3,794$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,274.1148548.7%236 W · 249 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc236…e3d3backed FURIA38c3,792$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,437.093554.3%19 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59cb…57d1backed FURIA54c3,704$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005048%24 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb17…c84bbacked Legacy37c3,685$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,321.552259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+39.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79c6…4cf3backed Legacy37c3,680$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,318.413951.8%72 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed FURIA45c3,598$1,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,602.8561737.9%234 W · 383 L-22.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc97d…89d7backed Legacy44c3,480$1,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,961.132147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4097…9397backed Legacy43c3,363$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,927.513551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6be…a0f3backed FURIA56c3,335$1,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,867.510449%51 W · 53 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked FURIA63c3,277$2,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,064.5135347.9%169 W · 184 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed Legacy65c3,179$2,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.1839064.4%251 W · 139 L+47.6wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xec2c…8b6cbacked Legacy34c3,120$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,059.24100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+93.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Legacy66c3,046$1,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.312,05741.5%853 W · 1,204 L-50.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked FURIA44c3,037$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.123,41529.3%1,001 W · 2,414 L-275.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Legacy38c3,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8605240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ae…6ccdbacked FURIA57c3,000$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7101145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Legacy36c3,000$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,904.9896740.7%394 W · 573 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Legacy44c2,991$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,675.31,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Legacy44c2,955$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,654.5523938.5%92 W · 147 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd47c…39b5backed Legacy38c2,772$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,718.745054%27 W · 23 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+25.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed FURIA48c2,758$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.8460434.1%206 W · 398 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked FURIA57c2,732$1,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.3223646.2%109 W · 127 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Legacy49c2,652$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,351.7116946.7%79 W · 90 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Legacy37c2,500$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5751,40833.7%475 W · 933 L+43.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad09…612cbacked Legacy38c2,327$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,442.88837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68a4…856ebacked Legacy37c2,325$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,464.75450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce1…f3aabacked Legacy44c2,273$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.731947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+29.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FURIA61c2,222$1,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,344.252,30945.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L-62.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x239e…cb80backed Legacy37c2,210$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.3955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid+14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed FURIA77c2,198$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,683.867645%304 W · 372 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed FURIA64c2,100$1,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,34450846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ec2…82babacked Legacy43c2,081$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.843839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1570…1404backed Legacy16c2,012$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,689.922835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8be4…a700backed FURIA62c1,950$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,208.945253.8%28 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Legacy37c1,946$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,220.4427045.9%124 W · 146 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Legacy38c1,842$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.1148350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa83f…b857backed Legacy42c1,800$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04412749.6%63 W · 64 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3705…9677backed Legacy34c1,778$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,167.263033.3%10 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked Legacy38c1,775$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.2227041.1%111 W · 159 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd68…a90fbacked Legacy44c1,682$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.2887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick53cpaid+80.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Legacy67c1,676$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.4187047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked Legacy43c1,660$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.211346.9%53 W · 60 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Legacy41c1,634$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.471,15448.3%557 W · 597 L+4.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed FURIA10c1,618$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.7756822.5%128 W · 440 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-5.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed FURIA62c1,613$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9959055.3%326 W · 264 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59ee…c77cbacked FURIA63c1,573$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.951040%4 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-41.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed Legacy37c1,550$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.951457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5045…914abacked Legacy43c1,547$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.7910644.3%47 W · 59 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked FURIA58c1,542$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.2172153.7%387 W · 334 L+28.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a81…0e8fbacked Legacy50c1,530$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.77988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.3wins+0.37per pick52cpaid+76.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2614…4442backed Legacy44c1,525$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.920949.3%103 W · 106 L-1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8400…274cbacked FURIA66c1,523$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005658.9%33 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked FURIA46c1,500$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.12,77037.4%1,036 W · 1,734 L-139.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed Legacy37c1,500$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.9922142.1%93 W · 128 L-13.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x415a…cea5backed Legacy38c1,487$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.841464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed FURIA66c1,484$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.3938868.3%265 W · 123 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.