TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$104,500
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$106,170

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,500 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x355e…a038backed No11c9,001$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.6613654.4%74 W · 62 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6684…a6debacked No0c6,838$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca37…a2aebacked No0c6,496$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c4,001$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.781,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc09…9024backed Yes70c3,776$2,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.37771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+38.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No8c2,853$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.24318.6%8 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb37f…fdcfbacked No4c2,743$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.216855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c37…85bcbacked Yes67c2,640$1,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-50.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9e…ba88backed No19c2,207$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.7933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+189.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No27c1,581$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.35742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No7c1,429$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8718311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffee…0e38backed No18c1,102$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eae…3562backed No27c1,072$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.191060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed No33c1,058$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.341414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-41.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No21c1,011$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.0520731.9%66 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked No29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2902814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203231.3%10 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfcd…c0f2backed No23c950$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4559…f02bbacked No26c930$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.8966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked Yes46c927$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.581450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19c1…a397backed No47c916.13$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.86520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee4e…aa5abacked No27c898$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.46933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-34.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc94…efd5backed No28c896$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.88425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No2c800$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.81867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes68c800$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26014250%71 W · 71 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce25…4e7dbacked No29c770$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.32630.8%8 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-47.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x54af…415ebacked Yes73c767$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.09616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-77.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes74c759$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.341735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed No33c758$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.141931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-47.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefc0…4942backed Yes73c747$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.692035%7 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ad8…9756backed No54c742$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.681127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-51.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No14c741.01$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9420418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes62c740.29$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.03850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No35c728.96$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.6911850%59 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7270…add3backed Yes73c727$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.292142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x154e…ed0cbacked Yes71c702$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.58757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked No30c701.77$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.53944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc70…50c0backed Yes67c700$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2311233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6177…c22abacked No27c674$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.98944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0de…7fb4backed No55c670$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x529d…6381backed Yes70c646.99$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.122737%10 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…bcf0backed Yes72c616$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.481050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed No28c606$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.681735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8d6…358fbacked No27c599$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7635…9ae0backed Yes72c584$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.521464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+50%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes67c563.08$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.51456.7%3 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-68.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59db…c353backed Yes46c545$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3304…4d82backed No46c527.64$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.2830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb9f…ee38backed Yes71c509$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.611266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+105.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked No41c499.93$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.852740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x524c…ab94backed Yes71c497$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked No29c497$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.132737%10 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a47…2e25backed No38c482.57$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9e5…d252backed No28c461$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.081163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick38cpaid+71.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbf57…588ebacked Yes72c461$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.081855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde1c…fb66backed No45c446.63$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed No16c441.57$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.311435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c51…a829backed Yes47c433$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.492245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7534…d51bbacked No53c433$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.491936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes78c431.84$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.912740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x965d…7773backed Yes73c418$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.862040%8 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03b2…567cbacked Yes73c387$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.491533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-48.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x45f0…4435backed Yes71c383$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.07771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick45cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No29c377.91$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.58540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb71d…3773backed No13c329$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.23425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7f…f745backed Yes57c315$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.451855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc57c…8d6dbacked No16c307.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfda…0345backed No36c274.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked No18c254.65$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.987824.4%19 W · 59 L-7.0wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed Yes74c241$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.661936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes72c237$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.362556%14 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes76c225.99$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4211841.5%49 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84c6…0c95backed No19c220.88$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ff…9a20backed No15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806354%34 W · 29 L+11.0wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+59.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x82dd…5514backed No27c197$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.191464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.19per pick46cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6eaa…4456backed Yes73c197$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.191136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf907…e7dbbacked No54c190$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadcd…29e9backed No53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1220…741abacked Yes73c181$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.872138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No26c154.89$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9440712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc7a9…2eb5backed Yes53c133$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2425…3dd1backed Yes77c129.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8b…9efcbacked Yes67c125.38$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d38…2078backed No57c123.61$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53c4…c004backed No49c123.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb767…9b51backed No29c122$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.382045%9 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+49.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed No40c120$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18b9…0d26backed No17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc255…0470backed No17c115.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.61450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ef…f5cebacked No26c109$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.341643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No21c108.34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.692977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71f6…ea40backed Yes72c108$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.241050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes62c104.29$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5814643.8%64 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3f…91e6backed No19c103.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ac…ba11backed No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c2…aa71backed Yes74c92$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.921353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed No23c84.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.595119.6%10 W · 41 L-6.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-38.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No40c82.46$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3925122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed Yes68c80$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.251643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.