AI · resolved market
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b13b1ef4cc7dc9d3b71f6643fe28ceacaad63949844f8b883ad33dc554aa8cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 11c | 9,001$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.66 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…a6debacked No | 0c | 6,838$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca37…a2aebacked No | 0c | 6,496$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,001$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 70c | 3,776$2,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 8c | 2,853$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.2 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb37f…fdcfbacked No | 4c | 2,743$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.21 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c37…85bcbacked Yes | 67c | 2,640$1,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…ba88backed No | 19c | 2,207$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +189.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 27c | 1,581$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.3 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 7c | 1,429$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.87 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…0e38backed No | 18c | 1,102$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed No | 27c | 1,072$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed No | 33c | 1,058$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.34 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 1,011$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.05 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked No | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcd…c0f2backed No | 23c | 950$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked No | 26c | 930$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 46c | 927$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c1…a397backed No | 47c | 916.13$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4e…aa5abacked No | 27c | 898$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc94…efd5backed No | 28c | 896$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 800$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 68c | 800$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 29c | 770$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.3 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…415ebacked Yes | 73c | 767$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 74c | 759$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.34 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 33c | 758$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.14 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed Yes | 73c | 747$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.69 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9756backed No | 54c | 742$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 14c | 741.01$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.94 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 62c | 740.29$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 35c | 728.96$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.69 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed Yes | 73c | 727$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.29 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…ed0cbacked Yes | 71c | 702$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked No | 30c | 701.77$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…50c0backed Yes | 67c | 700$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…c22abacked No | 27c | 674$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0de…7fb4backed No | 55c | 670$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 70c | 646.99$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.12 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed Yes | 72c | 616$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed No | 28c | 606$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.68 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d6…358fbacked No | 27c | 599$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed Yes | 72c | 584$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.52 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 67c | 563.08$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.51 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed Yes | 46c | 545$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3304…4d82backed No | 46c | 527.64$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed Yes | 71c | 509$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.61 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 41c | 499.93$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.85 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…ab94backed Yes | 71c | 497$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 29c | 497$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.13 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a47…2e25backed No | 38c | 482.57$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed No | 28c | 461$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked Yes | 72c | 461$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.08 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde1c…fb66backed No | 45c | 446.63$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 16c | 441.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed Yes | 47c | 433$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.49 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked No | 53c | 433$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.49 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 78c | 431.84$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.91 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 73c | 418$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked Yes | 73c | 387$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.49 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45f0…4435backed Yes | 71c | 383$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 29c | 377.91$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71d…3773backed No | 13c | 329$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed Yes | 57c | 315$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.45 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57c…8d6dbacked No | 16c | 307.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…0345backed No | 36c | 274.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 18c | 254.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 74c | 241$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 72c | 237$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 76c | 225.99$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…0c95backed No | 19c | 220.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed No | 27c | 197$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…4456backed Yes | 73c | 197$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…e7dbbacked No | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadcd…29e9backed No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked Yes | 73c | 181$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 26c | 154.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…2eb5backed Yes | 53c | 133$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 77c | 129.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8b…9efcbacked Yes | 67c | 125.38$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…2078backed No | 57c | 123.61$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…c004backed No | 49c | 123.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed No | 29c | 122$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…0d26backed No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…0470backed No | 17c | 115.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked No | 26c | 109$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 21c | 108.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed Yes | 72c | 108$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 62c | 104.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3f…91e6backed No | 19c | 103.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ac…ba11backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 74c | 92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 23c | 84.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 40c | 82.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 68c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.