TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7270…add3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
94
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: World Politics, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 59 out of 100; worst IPO at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$131.97
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$379Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$252.8
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$165.68
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.94
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$690.3
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.94
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$358.81
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.9
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$368Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$198.1
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.62
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.85
Will "Most Advanced" or "Most Powerful" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+566.7%+$148.75
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.25 (LOW) by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+257.1%+$437.76
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+199.2%+$217.7
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$38.61
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$102.36
Will "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$389.03
Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$587Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$586.94
Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$147.66
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$459.66
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$531Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+37%+$196.29
All 21 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.13
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$116.28
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.7
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.11
Will Iran strike Oman again in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$328Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$327.86
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.24
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$928Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$928.3
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+669.2%+$1,257.15
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+92.3%+$206.88
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$305.76
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+122.2%+$260.7
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+49.3%+$124.41
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$402Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$402.27
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$458Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+132.6%+$606.48
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$213.56
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$586Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+230%+$1,347.18
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.32per pick46cpaid+76.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.2
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$414Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$367.54
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,203Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+77.5%+$932.18
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 10-15%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$521Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$164.4
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+188.2%+$343.48
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$707Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$199.32
Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$333Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+35.1%+$117
Will Albin Kurti be the next Prime Minister of Kosovo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+440.5%+$806.04
Will Keir Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$36.24
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-68.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
IPO — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.8
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$309.58
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.38
Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be between $500M and $550M at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$120.23
Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be between $650M and $700M at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$166.24
Will Agomab Therapeutics NV's market cap be between $800M and $900M at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$347Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+117.4%+$407.16
Will Forgent Power Solutions' market cap be between $8.75B and $9.00B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$205.57
All 7 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+56.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+36.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick68cpaid+49.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympiacos advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+63.9%+$239.07
Will Club Brugge advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$409Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+35.1%+$143.78
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+170.3%+$442.26
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$229.95
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+614.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$338.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$569.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Dandelion" - Ella Langley debut week album sales be at least 140k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$563Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$777.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX have 11 or more launches in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+132.6%+$351.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-03-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$163.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+31.6%+$45.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$161.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chinese or Russian athlete kicked out of 2026 Winter Games for doping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$49.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-02-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$102.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$254.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
San Diego Toreros vs. Pepperdine Wavesbacked Pepperdine Waves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$710Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$710.21
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.