AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed1b0d93163d95c2b7406408b8c97f18283ce3892aa21eab4758a75a5ec684e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 15,287$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,496$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Yes | 2c | 5,457$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 1c | 3,002$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcaa…4b5cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,220$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,645$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 1c | 1,319$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,130$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 8c | 999.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed Yes | 12c | 999$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed Yes | 12c | 853$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.36 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed Yes | 14c | 703$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 12c | 691$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.92 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4146…82fdbacked Yes | 15c | 668.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…4456backed Yes | 14c | 648$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…7fd9backed Yes | 14c | 637$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.44per pick | 55cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…297bbacked Yes | 14c | 625$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9a…6fb2backed Yes | 14c | 613$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 611.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 4c | 581.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…9896backed Yes | 14c | 572$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +91%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…1dcfbacked Yes | 12c | 547$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65de…a48ebacked Yes | 5c | 542.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 541.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 540.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes | 12c | 473$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 12c | 461$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 446.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…86b7backed Yes | 15c | 444$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed Yes | 14c | 428$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed Yes | 14c | 427$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 373.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…7359backed Yes | 15c | 354$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 12c | 327$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 325.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed Yes | 12c | 316$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2b…a065backed Yes | 12c | 302$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 12c | 299$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed Yes | 11c | 255$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd2…b8efbacked Yes | 12c | 224.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 14c | 207$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…bf1ebacked Yes | 8c | 201.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb6…f660backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…6179backed Yes | 15c | 196.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked Yes | 12c | 196$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Yes | 12c | 191$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 12c | 162$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed Yes | 12c | 155$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed Yes | 14c | 152$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…0d52backed Yes | 14c | 104$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.35per pick | 42cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 70.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?this page
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?Yes won
- Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.