AI · resolved market
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a08e9a170056b1b786a1f29c1da48faf9df933f9f2de72f4f350f78c8dd1cb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $189,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $183,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 0c | 19,999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked No | 2c | 8,631$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.57 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 58c | 6,908$3,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,914.62 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 4,651$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.81 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe153…ba59backed Yes | 72c | 4,205$3,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed No | 33c | 3,447$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.23 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 64c | 3,385$2,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.94 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc876…8711backed No | 0c | 3,123$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked No | 1c | 3,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…29a4backed Yes | 71c | 3,000$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 19c | 2,903$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.14 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 3c | 2,350$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 3c | 2,164$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Yes | 15c | 2,063$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,752.52 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…e7d3backed Yes | 64c | 1,470$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…992bbacked No | 1c | 1,465$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 48c | 1,174$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 75c | 1,137$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed No | 18c | 1,067$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.06 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 30c | 1,023$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.56 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 70c | 1,000$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.52 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f48…79c9backed No | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed No | 13c | 986$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 14c | 983$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.38 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked No | 31c | 965$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f51…c63cbacked Yes | 15c | 926$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked No | 31c | 916$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 22c | 880.88$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.63 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 63c | 860.38$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.6 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes | 55c | 797$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 11c | 796.53$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…08cbbacked Yes | 69c | 708$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes | 69c | 680$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 676.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…2e6ebacked Yes | 76c | 652.21$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.32 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +88%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed Yes | 62c | 605$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.9 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed Yes | 76c | 599.96$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.08 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes | 14c | 596$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 30c | 586.71$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…4ddebacked No | 38c | 586$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…4b87backed No | 36c | 560$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 4c | 549.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.7 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…78cbbacked Yes | 17c | 544$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf23e…aec3backed No | 39c | 538$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 46c | 534.6$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.7 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed No | 45c | 528$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…6f61backed Yes | 10c | 526.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 3c | 521.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…0821backed Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.99 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 36c | 499$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.64 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Yes | 60c | 497.65$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked No | 39c | 492$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.88 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 45c | 483$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.35 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…6e0fbacked Yes | 55c | 483$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed Yes | 17c | 454$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.82 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed No | 13c | 440$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d1…51afbacked Yes | 23c | 422.96$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 61c | 420.65$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 36c | 411$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb6…f660backed Yes | 9c | 400$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…261cbacked Yes | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed Yes | 70c | 399.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed Yes | 61c | 395$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.05 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…829dbacked Yes | 15c | 364$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…5d90backed Yes | 38c | 361.29$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.86 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 342.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e1…80bfbacked Yes | 68c | 324.33$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 31c | 322.81$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.07 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed Yes | 61c | 312$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.68 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedcd…a1c7backed Yes | 63c | 305.09$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked No | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…efcabacked Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…30ddbacked Yes | 58c | 299.99$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 73c | 294.61$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 30c | 293.56$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…20e3backed No | 56c | 291.13$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…4d87backed Yes | 72c | 276.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 45c | 269$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.05 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 24c | 264.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 61c | 261$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.79 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…7754backed Yes | 69c | 257$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…eed6backed Yes | 60c | 255.55$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 70c | 250$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 14c | 242$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed No | 30c | 240.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 65c | 240$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…ad7fbacked Yes | 58c | 240$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 45cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f5…3699backed No | 42c | 240$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…1690backed Yes | 69c | 236$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a9…707abacked Yes | 53c | 226.02$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 33c | 219.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…b17abacked Yes | 73c | 214.74$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked Yes | 57c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…5c17backed No | 25c | 199.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 194.91$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.28 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…cf02backed Yes | 72c | 192$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb19e…b2edbacked Yes | 71c | 183.82$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…e492backed No | 42c | 180$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa2…c802backed Yes | 58c | 180$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 56c | 172.96$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.11 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?this page
- Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.