TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$189,134
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$183,490

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,134 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2165…f598backed No0c19,999$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid-43.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked No2c8,631$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.57150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes58c6,908$3,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,914.6210126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c4,651$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.811,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe153…ba59backed Yes72c4,205$3,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed No33c3,447$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.238815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed Yes64c3,385$2,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.943925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc876…8711backed No0c3,123$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe613…540ebacked No1c3,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-61.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b30…29a4backed Yes71c3,000$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No19c2,903$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.14486.3%3 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-76.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No3c2,350$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7421713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No3c2,164$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.446291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed Yes15c2,063$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,752.522425%6 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a10…e7d3backed Yes64c1,470$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.21145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5449…992bbacked No1c1,465$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162045%9 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No48c1,174$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56811841.5%49 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes75c1,137$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27947938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91be…2641backed No18c1,067$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.061127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No30c1,023$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.5625122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes70c1,000$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.529447.9%45 W · 49 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7f48…79c9backed No16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed No13c986$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.182045%9 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed Yes14c983$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.382665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+33.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb82b…dd5fbacked No31c965$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.151752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+39.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f51…c63cbacked Yes15c926$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.1757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+112.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9774…6d3cbacked No31c916$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.96944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No22c880.88$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.6320418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes63c860.38$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.625837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes55c797$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.65825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-59.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No11c796.53$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911250%6 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204d…08cbbacked Yes69c708$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.481353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+44.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes69c680$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.82259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick41cpaid+81.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c676.28$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.32522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe829…2e6ebacked Yes76c652.21$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.325100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+88%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x00c2…1be5backed Yes62c605$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.91560%9 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+61.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed Yes76c599.96$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.082763%17 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes14c596$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.561050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+115.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes30c586.71$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.161338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick28cpaid-17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0895…4ddebacked No38c586$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.68633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab21…4b87backed No36c560$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.61526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes4c549.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.72003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x425a…78cbbacked Yes17c544$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.52825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf23e…aec3backed No39c538$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No46c534.6$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.720148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3684…9669backed No45c528$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.61631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f8d…6f61backed Yes10c526.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.11728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+69.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No3c521.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.421421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick12cpaid-26.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x96b5…0821backed Yes7c499.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.991723.5%4 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick10cpaid+94.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0241…162abacked No36c499$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.642025%5 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-18.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Yes60c497.65$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.65475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a79…1ccbbacked No39c492$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.881643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked No45c483$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.352227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick37cpaid+8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8433…6e0fbacked Yes55c483$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.351050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39b4…3258backed Yes17c454$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.821540%6 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+65.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…bcf0backed No13c440$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.21050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d1…51afbacked Yes23c422.96$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.23650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+72.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04da…dc10backed Yes61c420.65$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.05955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x293b…c83bbacked No36c411$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.961030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb6…f660backed Yes9c400$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0db9…261cbacked Yes57c400$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1722100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed Yes70c399.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xabeb…7a78backed Yes61c395$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.052035%7 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick45cpaid0%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3702…829dbacked Yes15c364$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+72.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f24…5d90backed Yes38c361.29$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.861850%9 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No5c342.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.42792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22e1…80bfbacked Yes68c324.33$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.333100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked No31c322.81$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.074017.5%7 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d9d…a002backed Yes61c312$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.681450%7 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+31%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xedcd…a1c7backed Yes63c305.09$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85ba…e33abacked No41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+62.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…efcabacked Yes70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47cb…30ddbacked Yes58c299.99$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1272100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes73c294.61$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8057426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No30c293.56$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.173135.6%260 W · 471 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9567…20e3backed No56c291.13$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1621040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe88…4d87backed Yes72c276.52$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9778…1d7bbacked No45c269$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.052744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No24c264.37$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.259054.4%49 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5383…88f0backed Yes61c261$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.791850%9 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b1…7754backed Yes69c257$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.67650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5462…eed6backed Yes60c255.55$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1c7…d291backed Yes70c250$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741275%9 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed No14c242$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.883336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed No30c240.84$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.772222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-58.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes65c240$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843966.7%26 W · 13 L+6.7wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+44.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9c37…ad7fbacked Yes58c240$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick45cpaid+137.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93f5…3699backed No42c240$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf977…1690backed Yes69c236$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.16757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+65.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0a9…707abacked Yes53c226.02$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.022100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90b9…1951backed No33c219.92$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.641442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5ec…b17abacked Yes73c214.74$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.51450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd399…d13ebacked Yes57c200$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3143…5c17backed No25c199.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No77c194.91$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.2814643.8%64 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c43…cf02backed Yes72c192$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.165100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb19e…b2edbacked Yes71c183.82$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.821030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-56.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a96…e492backed No42c180$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaa2…c802backed Yes58c180$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No56c172.96$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.114944.9%22 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.