AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7d60408edb4588f3449401a1bb01588b6e8ad85afd350c404ccf4ef8b6db1c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $274,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $222,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 284 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 2c | 17,851$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…5ceabacked Yes | 25c | 16,961$4,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,212.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 26c | 14,556$3,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,848.31 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…f657backed Yes | 70c | 10,000$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…6f63backed Yes | 80c | 4,000$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe15d…3c69backed Yes | 1c | 3,270$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 2,842$1,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.39 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Yes | 24c | 2,656$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.36 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…d6f1backed No | 31c | 2,195$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,519.74 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked No | 32c | 2,169$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.23 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 21c | 2,105$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.86 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 2,099$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…e41dbacked No | 20c | 1,600$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 68c | 1,564$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.62 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 65c | 1,506$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.57 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed No | 29c | 1,479$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.09 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 29c | 1,412$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.86 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x518d…516abacked No | 20c | 1,400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 1,392$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.21 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 71c | 1,333$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.32 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed Yes | 71c | 1,240$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…4146backed Yes | 70c | 1,233$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 71c | 1,214$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.94 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfe…6108backed No | 30c | 1,188$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 71c | 1,171$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.05 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610f…1edabacked No | 33c | 1,155$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed No | 27c | 1,128$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.02 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed No | 29c | 1,125$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +73%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,045$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 74c | 1,043$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.82 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes | 71c | 1,024$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…e95bbacked No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 25c | 999.56$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.39 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked No | 31c | 997$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.28 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked No | 30c | 971$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.43 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…7861backed No | 31c | 955$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.95 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked Yes | 66c | 934$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked No | 30c | 920$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed No | 30c | 913$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.61 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 33c | 885$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.95 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcaa…4b5cbacked Yes | 3c | 874.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 71c | 873$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.54 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…09debacked No | 37c | 859$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb993…6e3abacked No | 29c | 817$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.86 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04d1…51afbacked No | 59c | 810.67$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ad…c209backed Yes | 38c | 786.41$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 30c | 768.09$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.72 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39bc…f230backed No | 24c | 762.09$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ee…9238backed Yes | 72c | 732$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2c…f08abacked Yes | 63c | 725$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed Yes | 26c | 723.38$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed Yes | 64c | 721$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.01 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…5d90backed Yes | 38c | 711.28$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.41 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed No | 29c | 704$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…d13dbacked No | 29c | 699$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.29 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…7c10backed Yes | 40c | 698.08$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.23 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…2e6ebacked No | 77c | 695.78$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.23 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +88%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes | 71c | 686$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…9896backed No | 28c | 683$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +91%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…fcecbacked No | 28c | 672$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked Yes | 66c | 660$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 56c | 635.55$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.98 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…63b6backed Yes | 70c | 635$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd6…019dbacked Yes | 74c | 635$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 71c | 633.37$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.37 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 33c | 628.64$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.13 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed No | 25c | 616$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x374b…9a1fbacked Yes | 64c | 611$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…f202backed Yes | 31c | 610.39$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 70c | 600$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.73 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…41f6backed Yes | 65c | 599$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed Yes | 72c | 580$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 69c | 577$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.13 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed Yes | 66c | 557$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.62 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…7f19backed Yes | 69c | 548$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed Yes | 68c | 546$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.28 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c7…be6fbacked Yes | 71c | 534$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…2ac3backed Yes | 28c | 533.42$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed No | 28c | 532$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.04 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…2867backed No | 32c | 523$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed Yes | 66c | 505$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…ca4fbacked No | 36c | 505$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 13c | 499.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 69c | 492$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.48 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…7807backed Yes | 29c | 490.96$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.38 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…8ef0backed No | 37c | 490$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…0d4cbacked Yes | 67c | 487$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed No | 29c | 481$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.51 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…99aebacked No | 29c | 464$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x612d…3fd1backed No | 30c | 459$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed No | 31c | 457$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.33 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…4456backed Yes | 70c | 456$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked No | 31c | 450$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 444.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked Yes | 75c | 443$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Yes | 72c | 437$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.64 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 15c | 431.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.06 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked No | 29c | 417$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.07 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed No | 34c | 415$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…4b87backed No | 35c | 413$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.45 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?this page
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?Yes won
- Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.