TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$274,176
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$222,433

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,176 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 284 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes2c17,851$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe828…5ceabacked Yes25c16,961$4,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,212.51936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+133.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed Yes26c14,556$3,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,848.318815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedb…f657backed Yes70c10,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89c6…6f63backed Yes80c4,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe15d…3c69backed Yes1c3,270$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No63c2,842$1,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.3910126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed Yes24c2,656$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.362425%6 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d48…d6f1backed No31c2,195$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.741540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb25…5b6bbacked No32c2,169$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.231758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+35.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes21c2,105$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.86486.3%3 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-76.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes3c2,099$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.946291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x036c…e41dbacked No20c1,600$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2801100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2950…ffeabacked Yes68c1,564$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.622657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+33.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No65c1,506$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.5711841.5%49 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd08…bd74backed No29c1,479$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.091861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed Yes29c1,412$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.863925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x518d…516abacked No20c1,400$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1201100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes10c1,392$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2145738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c2e…e025backed Yes71c1,333$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.322161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c51…a829backed Yes71c1,240$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.42245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53b7…4146backed Yes70c1,233$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.14933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa347…2a40backed Yes71c1,214$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.942520%5 W · 20 L-5.8wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-71.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xfdfe…6108backed No30c1,188$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-52.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcacf…115ebacked Yes71c1,171$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.051741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x610f…1edabacked No33c1,155$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.45560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x00c8…e4c8backed No27c1,128$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.021266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+55.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb18…2372backed No29c1,125$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.751266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+73%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c1,045$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.912522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5be7…46eebacked Yes74c1,043$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.822035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes71c1,024$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.182045%9 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f8…e95bbacked No20c1,000$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8001100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes25c999.56$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.399447.9%45 W · 49 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf57…588ebacked No31c997$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.281855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e9c…d1bebacked No30c971$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.431931.6%6 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93c8…7861backed No31c955$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.955100%5 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+101.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd824…528bbacked Yes66c934$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.441060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x805a…735dbacked No30c920$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6441643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7f…db83backed No30c913$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.611643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed No33c885$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.953345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcaa…4b5cbacked Yes3c874.55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6702…0051backed Yes71c873$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.542454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+93.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x217e…09debacked No37c859$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.171154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb993…6e3abacked No29c817$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.86785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+78.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x04d1…51afbacked No59c810.67$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.5650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+72.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4ad…c209backed Yes38c786.41$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes30c768.09$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.7225122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39bc…f230backed No24c762.09$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.46757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+63.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ee…9238backed Yes72c732$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.041442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee2c…f08abacked Yes63c725$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd553…6af5backed Yes26c723.38$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.241233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd29f…26b4backed Yes64c721$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.011457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+47.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f24…5d90backed Yes38c711.28$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.411850%9 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd4…c334backed No29c704$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.38825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1326…d13dbacked No29c699$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.291163.6%7 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+99.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f0b…7c10backed Yes40c698.08$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.23911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe829…2e6ebacked No77c695.78$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.235100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+88%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes71c686$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.061050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+115.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf13d…9896backed No28c683$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.31258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+91%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6537…fcecbacked No28c672$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.841145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+54.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2756…42efbacked Yes66c660$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.61145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No56c635.55$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.9820544.4%91 W · 114 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6897…63b6backed Yes70c635$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd6…019dbacked Yes74c635$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.57742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick62cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No71c633.37$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.372055%11 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No33c628.64$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.1320148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0278…00e6backed No25c616$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4621127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x374b…9a1fbacked Yes64c611$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.041040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+72.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f40…f202backed Yes31c610.39$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x965d…7773backed Yes70c600$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.732040%8 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb47e…41f6backed Yes65c599$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.35425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-50%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbbe…f1d5backed Yes72c580$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.61758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57ab…434bbacked Yes69c577$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.132330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c9a…f183backed Yes66c557$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.621163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+127.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6c2…7f19backed Yes69c548$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.12875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+157.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xabeb…7a78backed Yes68c546$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.282035%7 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick45cpaid0%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5c7…be6fbacked Yes71c534$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.1440%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfdf6…2ac3backed Yes28c533.42$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-49.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9279…9ca7backed No28c532$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.041936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ee…2867backed No32c523$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.64757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+28.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaec9…3213backed Yes66c505$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.641136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef3c…ca4fbacked No36c505$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.76862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked No13c499.99$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4355026%13 W · 37 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick17cpaid+44.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed Yes69c492$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.483540%14 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xabd6…7807backed Yes29c490.96$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.381546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fcc…8ef0backed No37c490$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+44.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cb0…0d4cbacked Yes67c487$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…cd36backed No29c481$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.511275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+63.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5663…99aebacked No29c464$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.44933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x612d…3fd1backed No30c459$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.3580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+70.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1184…1b67backed No31c457$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.331850%9 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+40.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eaa…4456backed Yes70c456$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.21136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a37…141abacked No31c450$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.52343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes17c444.57$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.221,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f2…95debacked Yes75c443$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.251855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+100.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x968f…a539backed Yes72c437$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.642441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No15c431.92$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.0618311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea5a…e6aebacked No29c417$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.071764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+46%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x646f…23c3backed No34c415$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.91637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab21…4b87backed No35c413$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.451526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.