TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd553…6af5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
166
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: Middle East, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 61 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT3560%21 W · 14 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+154.9%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$4,150Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$1,239.61
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$205.8
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+300%+$749.98
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$252Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$1,548
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$930Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+115.1%+$1,070
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$222.7
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$678Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+41%+$277.94
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$516Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$516
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$522Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$522.2
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$565Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$564.99
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+229.1%+$697.68
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,540Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+37.2%+$572.2
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$94.12
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+37%+$110.96
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$421Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$420.8
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,671Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+33%+$551.07
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+62.7%+$125.39
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$520
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$489Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+124.7%+$610.49
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+4,445.5%+$1,294.27
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$550
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+433.6%+$1,734.5
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,224Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+26.7%+$593.03
US forces enter Iran by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$921Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+31%+$285.12
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the DHS shutdown last 110 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,372Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+35%+$480
Will the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,057Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+41.4%+$1,265.87
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$3,384Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,383.54
Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$165
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,336Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,335.54
Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$450
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+163.2%+$815.79
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,286Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$1,286.28
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$958Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$958
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$533Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$532.67
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$600
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+256.1%+$1,330.5
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+647.3%+$909.5
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$365.77
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$473Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+26.8%+$126.97
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$136.76
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$243.64
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$48
All 19 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST1942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$242Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+127.3%+$308
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$874Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+87%+$760.58
Games Total: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$32
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$180
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+104.9%+$256
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+38.9%+$112
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+56.3%+$90
Games Total: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$38
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$219
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$283.98
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$105
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$172.5
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$592Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+52.1%+$308.47
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$151.64
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$78
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5)backed Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.66
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$77.25
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3)backed Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$156.8
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3)backed CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$173
All 19 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.33
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$402Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$401.59
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.4
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$352
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,447Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,447.37
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.97
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$797Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$218.4
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$780Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$2,220
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$385Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$385
Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+300%+$60
Will Russia recapture territory in Kucheriv Yar by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$89.25
Will Russia recapture territory in Vilne by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$215.28
Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$161.99
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,168Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+42.4%+$495.67
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
All 19 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$206
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$846Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$846.25
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$284
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$44.44
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,684Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,684.42
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$189.24
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$184.99
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+42.9%+$428.57
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$959Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+40.7%+$390.5
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$290
Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+170.3%+$94.5
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$486Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$486.4
All 12 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Miami Florida make the College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+200.8%+$411.54
Will Alabama make the College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+38.9%+$84
Florida State vs. Stanfordbacked Stanford · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$722Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+46%+$332.55
Mississippi State vs. Florida Gatorsbacked Mississippi State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$97
Memphis vs. UAB Blazersbacked Memphis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.97
Northern Illinois vs. Ohiobacked Northern Illinois · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$145
Oklahoma vs. South Carolinabacked South Carolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.8
Georgia Tech vs. Dukebacked Duke · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.05
Central Michigan vs. Bowlingbacked Central Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+150%+$75
All 9 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-68.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Packers vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+138.1%+$276.19
Buccaneers vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$46.5
Falcons vs. 49ersbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
All 3 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+139.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+56.3%+$144
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+222.6%+$344.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$375Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$375
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mariano vs Jungleman: Higher winnings at Hustler Casino on Friday?backed Mariano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Devils vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$515Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$514.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$953Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$952.54
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.