TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Mikie Sherrill win by less than 3%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,447,753
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$730,474

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,447,753 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 304 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5170…a46bbacked Yes0c45,977$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9279…e773backed Yes0c40,842$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa951…3be0backed Yes0c40,492$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b5…90b5backed Yes0c39,737$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cd4…6974backed Yes0c35,637$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed6…5bc0backed Yes0c32,342$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbb6…ef52backed Yes0c28,182$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes22c28,000$6,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,2353630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+37.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa801…7fe8backed Yes0c27,888$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…7cbebacked Yes0c27,608$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa55e…db43backed Yes0c27,388$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbb…0552backed Yes0c27,288$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fe2…e718backed Yes0c27,023$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0847…2522backed Yes0c26,788$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0da9…5ff9backed Yes0c26,338$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6495…2884backed Yes27c25,863$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,00040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ab7…c5e6backed Yes0c24,018$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe899…0899backed No73c23,995$17,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,478.552250%11 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe079…3d53backed Yes0c23,817$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb81…1597backed Yes0c23,817$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x784d…8e2fbacked Yes0c23,688$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6aa…e182backed Yes0c23,642$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd236…d292backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x036e…9276backed No72c19,899$14,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,616.282737%10 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05a9…7175backed Yes0c19,318$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked No73c18,716$13,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,966.243046.7%14 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-4.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No65c17,973$11,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,293.874650%23 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9bee…0706backed Yes30c13,500$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,05010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61a9…d092backed Yes15c13,490$2,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,028.53119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf872…9b11backed Yes5c12,819$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+39.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47c8…f30abacked Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25be…ddffbacked Yes0c11,740$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf440…2747backed Yes26c11,005$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.911618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-55.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc86d…d3aebacked Yes29c10,794$3,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,114.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No75c10,686$7,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,705.916043.3%26 W · 34 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x09de…aa3abacked Yes29c9,750$2,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,827.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31b6…2d92backed Yes27c8,832$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,400714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb37…2bf1backed Yes28c8,586$2,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,382.27714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No66c8,536$5,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,905.765145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3ae…440ebacked Yes25c7,900$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5822…0d28backed Yes32c7,803$2,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,533.3640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x727b…fdb5backed Yes27c7,595$2,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,086.230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3df4…7771backed Yes21c7,550$1,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.6140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed15…af1ebacked No70c6,900$4,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0701100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No74c6,822$5,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,765.5717352.6%91 W · 82 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa786…be6abacked No70c6,600$4,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9801100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes32c6,374$2,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,025.913225%8 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked No74c6,119$4,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.971323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-60.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15a9…677ebacked Yes29c6,101$1,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,754.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed No73c5,535$4,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,494.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No74c5,455$4,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,429.394957.1%28 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes26c5,212$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.964240.5%17 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes34c5,199$1,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,752.726835.3%24 W · 44 L-9.0wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-46%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5d61…6f1abacked Yes31c4,342$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.671127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe274…ee86backed Yes35c4,290$1,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,501.52222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce3…f779backed Yes26c3,927$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.033525.7%9 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bd2…c21bbacked Yes30c3,883$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.69728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes28c3,817$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.497939.2%31 W · 48 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-21.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Yes26c3,600$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.991020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-65.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes27c3,549$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.676445.3%29 W · 35 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3445…7488backed Yes29c3,507$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes26c3,500$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9151711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-73.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd975…c6d6backed Yes17c3,400$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.52630.8%8 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x381c…8da4backed Yes32c3,327$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47d7…b3c4backed No71c3,300$2,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfb6…127cbacked No71c3,250$2,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2c6…f793backed No71c3,200$2,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9282100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes25c3,125$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.4263.8%1 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.19per pick22cpaid-65%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xc402…8d5fbacked Yes27c3,013$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e6d…212ebacked Yes26c3,000$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79290%0 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c95…4d15backed Yes27c2,784$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes21c2,774$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.623225%8 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d4a…621bbacked No75c2,752$2,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.84633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27b2…865ebacked Yes38c2,663$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+69.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes32c2,565$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98e8…ab20backed Yes32c2,544$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819175.9%1 W · 16 L-5.2wins-0.30per pick36cpaid-91.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xbbae…13f8backed Yes23c2,471$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.63110%0 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5895…88b7backed Yes28c2,470$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70050%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes20c2,250$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4401915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe966…0228backed Yes29c2,203$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+75.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed Yes26c2,151$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.244139%16 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes23c2,100$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4891346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed No75c2,048$1,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.123345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Yes29c2,032$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.541330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked No70c2,000$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6101560%9 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No65c2,000$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7104062.5%25 W · 15 L+7.2wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa968…aa45backed Yes23c1,979$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.26540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+63.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes26c1,943$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003138.7%12 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+54%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No73c1,776$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.245433.3%18 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0f8…c69ebacked Yes30c1,672$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.6740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b7…c080backed Yes30c1,647$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes34c1,589$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.333514.3%5 W · 30 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-59.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x455e…4f80backed Yes32c1,565$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddd8…624bbacked Yes24c1,562$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.561118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958b…4ec4backed Yes24c1,500$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed Yes40c1,499$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No68c1,486$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.335545.5%25 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes31c1,450$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.024022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5173…7f78backed Yes27c1,445$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15d9…12d1backed Yes29c1,368$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.