TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Mikie Sherrill win by 3-6%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$429,041
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$260,766

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $429,041 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf872…9b11backed Yes15c19,811$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+39.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f63…4114backed Yes0c19,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes26c18,000$4,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,695.31457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes21c15,826$3,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,375.425738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0290…2c7bbacked Yes0c13,860$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6495…2884backed Yes25c10,003$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes24c7,562$1,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,843.373225%8 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes21c7,034$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No70c6,899$4,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,069.615841.4%24 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x61a9…d092backed Yes12c6,520$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.43119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes22c6,044$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.471346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25be…ddffbacked Yes0c4,538$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb37…2bf1backed Yes21c4,200$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.44714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x455e…4f80backed Yes29c3,530$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Yes27c3,501$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.171020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-65.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bd2…c21bbacked Yes30c3,308$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.88728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes24c3,270$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.476431.3%20 W · 44 L-10.4wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-52%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6e6d…212ebacked Yes22c2,980$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.5990%0 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d61…6f1abacked Yes26c2,882$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.931127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x593c…72debacked Yes30c2,719$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.951513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.21per pick34cpaid-75.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc92d…2339backed Yes21c2,619$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5822…0d28backed Yes21c2,611$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.6440%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x381c…8da4backed Yes30c2,545$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes8c2,462$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.1621033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x727b…fdb5backed Yes24c2,348$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes22c2,249$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003138.7%12 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+54%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Yes23c2,124$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.521040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes30c1,960$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5888550.6%43 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes21c1,895$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.93263.8%1 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.19per pick22cpaid-65%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x1e84…1ab4backed Yes20c1,695$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c1,474$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.9533238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes22c1,454$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.344431.8%14 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x858b…b832backed Yes20c1,300$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes21c1,291$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.11633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+75.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd975…c6d6backed Yes9c1,250$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.52528%7 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5173…7f78backed Yes30c1,240$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98e8…ab20backed Yes21c1,220$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.73175.9%1 W · 16 L-5.2wins-0.30per pick36cpaid-91.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xc358…1015backed Yes21c1,000$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.241216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-73.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes22c1,000$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.041127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-57.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-73.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2755…5016backed Yes22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No80c985.72$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.565151%26 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes22c964.24$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.134141.5%17 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked Yes1c964.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Yes17c952$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.841330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes21c922$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.625234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes22c845$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.7650%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x057d…4d1fbacked Yes23c826.91$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.92137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick32cpaid-83.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1088…b813backed Yes22c800.09$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.396432.8%21 W · 43 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes27c786.91$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.552924.1%7 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed Yes26c755.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes17c734.54$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.253432.4%11 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f4d…905abacked Yes14c726.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes21c715$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.155139.2%20 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Yes21c700.18$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.083721.6%8 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb875…4d3abacked Yes20c700$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes16c690$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.068114.8%12 W · 69 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-39.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes20c666$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.21127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes19c542.21$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.114015%6 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes26c539.18$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.6140%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked Yes23c500$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.51827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3da…d974backed Yes26c500$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.192236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42c0…7e34backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-47.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes18c435$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick29cpaid-84.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes18c400$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703525.7%9 W · 26 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+300.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x741c…73f3backed Yes26c352.98$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No77c351.41$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7621155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes17c350$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.54957.1%28 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc63b…3e64backed Yes23c333.39$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef7e…7556backed Yes21c320$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6850%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes17c311.4$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.941428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-53.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed Yes17c307$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.191855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+41.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes26c300.2$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.474042.5%17 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-26.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes21c300$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes22c300$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.55129.4%15 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0a1…fb90backed Yes20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x538f…7c72backed Yes23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes21c284.42$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6024433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc163…5a1dbacked Yes22c275$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No78c270.29$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.444652.2%24 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Yes20c250.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-71.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x045d…d649backed Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes17c232.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd553…6af5backed Yes23c220$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0060…4cc4backed Yes23c213.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x445a…9465backed Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.671450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c199$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3713317.3%23 W · 110 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x22e3…c075backed Yes21c195.82$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.08714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf4…d167backed Yes28c191$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xceaa…bb9abacked Yes25c188.32$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4340%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes20c180$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-57.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8dd…a845backed Yes30c173$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed Yes20c170.03$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.011323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8dc…4bffbacked Yes30c158$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.440%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked No80c150$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick41cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e5b…8d94backed Yes20c137.04$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281010%1 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-79.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.