Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 3-6%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96d3a91aa1c3d07fc505a5142f52f50f4759e7dd2ea7ed79babe87b224ec188c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $429,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $260,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $429,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf872…9b11backed Yes | 15c | 19,811$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f63…4114backed Yes | 0c | 19,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 26c | 18,000$4,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,695.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 21c | 15,826$3,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,375.42 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0290…2c7bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,860$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…2884backed Yes | 25c | 10,003$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 24c | 7,562$1,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.37 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 21c | 7,034$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 70c | 6,899$4,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.61 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61a9…d092backed Yes | 12c | 6,520$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.43 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes | 22c | 6,044$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.47 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25be…ddffbacked Yes | 0c | 4,538$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb37…2bf1backed Yes | 21c | 4,200$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x455e…4f80backed Yes | 29c | 3,530$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Yes | 27c | 3,501$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…c21bbacked Yes | 30c | 3,308$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 24c | 3,270$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.47 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6d…212ebacked Yes | 22c | 2,980$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.59 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d61…6f1abacked Yes | 26c | 2,882$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.93 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…72debacked Yes | 30c | 2,719$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.95 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…2339backed Yes | 21c | 2,619$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5822…0d28backed Yes | 21c | 2,611$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…8da4backed Yes | 30c | 2,545$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 8c | 2,462$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.16 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…fdb5backed Yes | 24c | 2,348$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,249$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Yes | 23c | 2,124$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 30c | 1,960$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 21c | 1,895$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.93 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -65%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e84…1ab4backed Yes | 20c | 1,695$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 1,474$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.95 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 22c | 1,454$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.34 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…b832backed Yes | 20c | 1,300$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 21c | 1,291$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…c6d6backed Yes | 9c | 1,250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5173…7f78backed Yes | 30c | 1,240$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…ab20backed Yes | 21c | 1,220$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.73 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.30per pick | 36cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc358…1015backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.04 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 80c | 985.72$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.56 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 22c | 964.24$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.13 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 1c | 964.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Yes | 17c | 952$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.84 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 21c | 922$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.62 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes | 22c | 845$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked Yes | 23c | 826.91$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.92 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 22c | 800.09$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.39 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 27c | 786.91$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.55 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 26c | 755.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 17c | 734.54$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4d…905abacked Yes | 14c | 726.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 21c | 715$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.15 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 21c | 700.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.08 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…4d3abacked Yes | 20c | 700$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 16c | 690$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes | 20c | 666$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 19c | 542.21$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.11 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes | 26c | 539.18$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 23c | 500$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed Yes | 26c | 500$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…7e34backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 18c | 435$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…04e4backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 18c | 400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +300.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…73f3backed Yes | 26c | 352.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 351.41$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 17c | 350$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…3e64backed Yes | 23c | 333.39$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef7e…7556backed Yes | 21c | 320$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 17c | 311.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 17c | 307$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 26c | 300.2$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 22c | 300$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…fb90backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x538f…7c72backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 21c | 284.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc163…5a1dbacked Yes | 22c | 275$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 78c | 270.29$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 20c | 250.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…d649backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 17c | 232.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed Yes | 23c | 220$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0060…4cc4backed Yes | 23c | 213.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445a…9465backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 199$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22e3…c075backed Yes | 21c | 195.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…d167backed Yes | 28c | 191$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceaa…bb9abacked Yes | 25c | 188.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 20c | 180$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…a845backed Yes | 30c | 173$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed Yes | 20c | 170.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8dc…4bffbacked Yes | 30c | 158$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5b…8d94backed Yes | 20c | 137.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mikie Sherrill win by 3-6%?this page
- Will Mikie Sherrill win by 12-15%?Yes won
- Will Mikie Sherrill win by 15%+?No won
- Will Mikie Sherrill win by 6-9%?No won
- Will Mikie Sherrill win by 9-12%?No won
- Will Mikie Sherrill win by less than 3%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.