Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 12-15%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe51620081773c0ea4151c7ca67346c7d6c7c12f39be922ce656fa909c6b1f6c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $727,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $749,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $727,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 10c | 123,322$12,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110,375.32 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 24c | 101,578$24,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76,745.08 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 8c | 35,156$2,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,515.86 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 10c | 27,395$2,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,524.21 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +103%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 11c | 23,238$2,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,709.93 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46ba…e67ebacked No | 37c | 15,000$5,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,494.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 14c | 14,349$2,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,320.94 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 10,200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 55 | 1.8%1 W · 54 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…fdc2backed Yes | 57c | 9,017$5,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,907.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa206…295bbacked No | 1c | 7,637$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 21c | 6,488$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,129.54 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…1e37backed Yes | 16c | 6,088$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,087.82 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 67c | 5,500$3,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,680.52 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 20c | 5,013$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,011.34 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…7e1fbacked Yes | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,400 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f0…a3e8backed Yes | 52c | 4,967$2,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,382.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 13c | 4,183$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,656.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 8c | 2,587$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.03 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 11c | 2,309$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,058.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 61c | 2,279$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.17 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe876…7346backed Yes | 12c | 2,160$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,909.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +188%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 13c | 1,650$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.45 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 1,200$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.25 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 17c | 1,189$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.56 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 19c | 1,139$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.11 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,090$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb088…3862backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +218.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 52c | 1,000$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.5 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 8c | 801$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.92 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 40c | 616.84$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.47 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 8c | 571.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.4 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 8c | 522.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.48 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 15c | 477.04$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.89 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 8c | 419.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.14 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 15c | 412.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.01 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 15c | 369.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.82 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 10c | 352$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…bb12backed Yes | 10c | 299.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…026fbacked Yes | 11c | 286.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.79 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 276.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.79 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…76babacked Yes | 9c | 275$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 37c | 257.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +126%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes | 35c | 249.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf356…3effbacked Yes | 12c | 206.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d2…73c2backed Yes | 11c | 196.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Yes | 9c | 166.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 14c | 146.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.35 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 9c | 146$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.31 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Yes | 13c | 123$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.01 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 10c | 107.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…4048backed Yes | 12c | 100.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +188.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 76c | 57.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadcb…84b5backed Yes | 35c | 54.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 51.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mikie Sherrill win by 12-15%?this page
- Will Mikie Sherrill win by 15%+?No won
- Will Mikie Sherrill win by 3-6%?No won
- Will Mikie Sherrill win by 6-9%?No won
- Will Mikie Sherrill win by 9-12%?No won
- Will Mikie Sherrill win by less than 3%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.