Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 15%+?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a31740f12da16124e36298f9dfb3006d9d3a2480d338ef262baa560ea4c4928
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $585,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $534,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $585,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 8c | 95,840$7,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,623.15 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 6c | 89,815$5,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,715.9 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 7c | 57,164$4,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,111.47 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 5c | 31,052$1,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,706.71 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 4c | 23,433$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.05 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +103%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 55 | 1.8%1 W · 54 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 1c | 13,228$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 7c | 7,701$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.39 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 5,142$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.5 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 5c | 4,746$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.93 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,575$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…d753backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 4c | 2,200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 7c | 2,086$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.01 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked Yes | 1c | 1,887$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8abd…e74dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,655$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,567$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 25c | 1,443$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 1,254$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…9d86backed Yes | 2c | 1,115$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 4c | 999$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed Yes | 8c | 937.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…7158backed Yes | 8c | 900$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b78…2637backed Yes | 5c | 640.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 4c | 491.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…76babacked Yes | 5c | 469.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 415$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 5c | 400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf356…3effbacked Yes | 6c | 366.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 21c | 342.66$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bd…275dbacked Yes | 3c | 329.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bf…e557backed Yes | 5c | 326.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 80c | 310$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…bb12backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 5c | 265.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 9c | 204$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 20c | 200.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5713…a086backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7c…1350backed Yes | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 26c | 155.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 76c | 59.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc652…11b1backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 41.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mikie Sherrill win by 15%+?this page
- Will Mikie Sherrill win by 12-15%?Yes won
- Will Mikie Sherrill win by 3-6%?No won
- Will Mikie Sherrill win by 6-9%?No won
- Will Mikie Sherrill win by 9-12%?No won
- Will Mikie Sherrill win by less than 3%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.