TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Mikie Sherrill win by 9-12%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$472,954
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$380,576

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $472,954 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x889e…09e0backed Yes15c63,382$9,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,507.272944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes14c39,217$5,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,588.344650%23 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes14c32,026$4,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,525.275841.4%24 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked Yes13c31,991$4,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,002.483046.7%14 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-4.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes18c18,871$3,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,416.955145.1%23 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+103%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes16c13,111$2,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,060.045545.5%25 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1d1…1e37backed Yes24c12,797$3,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,126.231233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes17c10,914$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,848.05633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+75.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12b4…b776backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46ba…e67ebacked Yes25c10,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes7c9,867$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.173426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes15c9,420$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.485044%22 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed Yes9c7,998$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.963345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No79c5,700$4,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,212.26431.3%20 W · 44 L-10.4wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-52%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x23a2…5643backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes32c4,100$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3187639.5%30 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61a9…d092backed Yes5c3,999$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.94119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes17c3,431$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.95425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+98.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes19c2,725$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.271346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes14c2,574$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.8210740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe876…7346backed Yes20c2,222$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+188%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9401…e9ffbacked Yes19c2,158$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.72313%3 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes18c2,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3603030%9 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes27c1,805$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.944957.1%28 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes11c1,800$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19814356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes16c1,723$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.491926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-61.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes10c1,521$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.383125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes19c1,500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.715129.4%15 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes14c1,340$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.3831434.1%107 W · 207 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f63…4114backed Yes1c1,333$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa24…fdc2backed Yes54c1,213$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes8c1,201$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.752722.2%6 W · 21 L-6.4wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-70.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes15c1,190$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.491533.3%5 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+79.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5d61…6f1abacked Yes15c1,109$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes13c1,011$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.438133.3%27 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb088…3862backed Yes13c1,002$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+218.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17fa…e908backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-61.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc358…1015backed Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-73.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2365…8eb9backed Yes23c999.99$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2302437.5%9 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.18per pick20cpaid+104.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes13c999.98$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1324062.5%25 W · 15 L+7.2wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfe27…52b7backed Yes17c999.97$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes17c993.45$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1705836.2%21 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes24c962.66$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23524433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes16c909.57$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-60.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2755…5016backed Yes16c854.63$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.741631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes20c834.04$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.478114.8%12 W · 69 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-39.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6512…5291backed Yes15c800$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2144…94abbacked Yes15c800$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-54.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c9a…e376backed No80c738.66$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.73520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-75%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes12c737.84$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.992924.1%7 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed Yes13c612$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.11855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+41.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes17c590$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.350%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes16c542.34$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.1634129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes43c400$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.52445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes4c366.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157425.7%19 W · 55 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce15…935cbacked Yes16c321.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-45.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f61…bb12backed Yes17c300$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35d7…026fbacked Yes16c285.05$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.272343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+51.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed Yes13c261.5$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid+4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes12c250$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.51735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes18c245.97$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.271931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x045d…d649backed Yes6c238.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.29540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes20c220.82$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.121040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes22c208.33$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454431.8%14 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick41cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed No35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1304825%12 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1004533.3%15 W · 30 L+7.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+43.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa8dc…4bffbacked Yes16c198.58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3140%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cf8…042fbacked No77c194.81$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.813138.7%12 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+54%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdacf…8d11backed Yes15c177.4$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.611741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+74.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5bd…76babacked Yes14c140$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.61250%6 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+89.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcddc…63edbacked Yes16c129.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.641216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-52.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc88…a949backed Yes76c128.9$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf356…3effbacked Yes16c123.54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+86.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a4a…850fbacked Yes16c121.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b78…2637backed Yes19c118.68$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a02…413cbacked Yes17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86db…1d4fbacked Yes16c114.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c111.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7813317.3%23 W · 110 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x22a9…1afcbacked Yes18c110.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202544%11 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x646c…3210backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+35%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9db…4048backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+188.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147533.3%25 W · 50 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5355…fae9backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+30.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc163…5a1dbacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+149.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30bc…ea78backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed Yes22c95.82$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.084037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed Yes16c93.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151250%6 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+61.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes15c90$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.640%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf91f…57f5backed Yes20c75.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.78333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf63…c242backed Yes17c70.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed Yes18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+64.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9db7…7e1fbacked No52c51.53$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.731118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55f4…959cbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-45.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7c…1350backed Yes48c21.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.33728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.