TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5355…fae9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 54 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST1428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+96.1%+$24.5
Will PVV win 27–29 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$20.55
Will PVV win 33 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+42.4%+$13.99
Will JA21 win 9–10 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$56.8
Netherlands Parliamentary Election: DENK vs BBBbacked BBB · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+92.3%+$9.6
Will D66 win 20 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$33
Will D66 win 16–17 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$11.97
Will D66 win fewer than 16 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$30.41
Will CDA win 22–24 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will VVD win 18 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$16.8
Will VVD win 14–15 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will VVD win fewer than 14 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$31.4
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$884Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+49.8%+$439.89
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$799Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$798.56
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick33cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$24
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+82.6%+$90.5
Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$53.75
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+63.9%+$39.78
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$66.05
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$38
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$21.75
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+194.1%+$66
Grokipedia released by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$16.8
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+30.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+61.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$22
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+95.4%+$58.38
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.78
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+53.8%+$17.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 3, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$48.55
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$29
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$3.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$112.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?backed ETH · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$19.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.