Earnings · resolved market
Will Ares Management (ARES) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc696376ccca8d06fc21345a9c8c12645fad739c5b0f1508b5fc2e32c4937ef89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c56…f60cbacked Yes | 65c | 5,724$3,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,023.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 33c | 2,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.98 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 35c | 1,545$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.54 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed Yes | 75c | 1,368$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.41 | 21 | 95.2%20 W · 1 L | +6.7wins | +0.32per pick | 63cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…8f46backed Yes | 67c | 740.15$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.59 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233a…0858backed Yes | 68c | 441.64$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed No | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 51c | 349.3$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.98 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…13b7backed Yes | 67c | 298.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.47 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 280.55$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 40c | 240.8$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 34c | 240$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes | 35c | 228.56$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.01 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 33c | 213.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…8b32backed Yes | 60c | 210$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 65c | 199.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 40c | 175$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf37…2454backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 32c | 150.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…a3b1backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…4957backed Yes | 68c | 126.65$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked No | 41c | 122.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 117.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 115.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 40c | 115$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 62c | 99.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked Yes | 65c | 99.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 62c | 88.79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 30c | 84.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 53c | 75.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 66c | 75.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a58…a249backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked No | 64c | 71.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 49c | 71.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 51c | 69.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 34c | 66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 48c | 62.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c21…1101backed No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 61c | 58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked No | 36c | 55.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked No | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…4547backed Yes | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5355…fae9backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 40c | 48.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…687ebacked No | 54c | 47.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 33c | 43.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 55c | 42.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6eb…7f51backed No | 35c | 42.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f6…cb05backed Yes | 67c | 41.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x259c…90c1backed No | 37c | 40.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a46…fecebacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce88…7423backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d27…4f3cbacked Yes | 66c | 30.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…57f5backed No | 36c | 30.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3029…0ab1backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf09…2605backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a5…c4cabacked Yes | 68c | 29.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a84…f8a1backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eff…e91ebacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…75dabacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 72cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 68c | 23.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 74c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…d8cdbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…4048backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked Yes | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…13a0backed Yes | 66c | 19.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…4260backed Yes | 67c | 18.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.