Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump try to fire Powell in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1091e6022313f2998ae0fb0786575e45442a54a5c98a10c8537915400895b32c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $463,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $540,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $463,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x611c…c982backed Yes | 0c | 42,058$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…259fbacked Yes | 4c | 39,664$1,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,703.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 18c | 22,581$4,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,021.04 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 16c | 11,257$1,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760.92 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed Yes | 25c | 8,432$2,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,081.2 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 9c | 6,468$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.73 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 6,070$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.63 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 77c | 5,586$4,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.17 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.71 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 15c | 4,778$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.56 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…40abbacked Yes | 3c | 4,777$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf869…f264backed Yes | 9c | 4,524$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 8c | 4,335$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.46 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 10c | 4,157$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes | 10c | 4,000$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7720…da92backed Yes | 5c | 3,808$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 2,800$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.86 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,609$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.62 | 321 | 7.2%23 W · 298 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44b…4496backed Yes | 14c | 2,454$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed No | 74c | 2,288$1,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 13c | 2,183$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.78 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 21c | 2,177$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.07 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…c36fbacked Yes | 14c | 2,082$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.63 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0065…02f3backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 15c | 1,880$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.02 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f69…9c7abacked No | 75c | 1,595$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d38…219cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,536$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 27c | 1,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…220ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,358$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd172…ce4dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,349$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,222$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 5c | 1,034$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 4c | 1,014$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…79a7backed Yes | 13c | 1,002$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9be…6252backed Yes | 31c | 927$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe19…5786backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…88d0backed Yes | 8c | 865$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 16c | 799.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 722.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 6c | 701.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -78%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 12c | 700$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…073dbacked Yes | 4c | 678.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 4c | 665$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked Yes | 4c | 652$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 11c | 650$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe20…2042backed Yes | 31c | 644.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.66 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 25c | 618.64$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.54 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Yes | 17c | 600$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 4c | 547$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 5c | 520$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…4766backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 8c | 499.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes | 5c | 462$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…d9edbacked Yes | 5c | 459$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed No | 74c | 450$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…aa4cbacked Yes | 4c | 439$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 380.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb796…58a8backed Yes | 6c | 370$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…245dbacked Yes | 4c | 366$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed No | 69c | 363$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.53 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35ae…6f1fbacked Yes | 13c | 350$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed Yes | 5c | 338$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x852c…2453backed Yes | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…3c15backed Yes | 5c | 310.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 29c | 292.02$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed Yes | 5c | 285$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…dc06backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 69c | 247.19$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 75c | 244$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…06e5backed Yes | 4c | 232$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5db…d774backed Yes | 4c | 227$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…7078backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…547abacked Yes | 5c | 219$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5355…fae9backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa663…438dbacked Yes | 14c | 192.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c2…5fc4backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…dc84backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed Yes | 29c | 144.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…7aafbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8604…3b73backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes | 9c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c2…fde0backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf527…4454backed No | 78c | 128.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba16…d417backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3d…b13abacked No | 76c | 105.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.