World Politics · resolved market
Will D66 win 20 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ae5d45551a0e307be64d6e319b74d1bcece76786875a5d7fab7f7233ff65dc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 55c | 1,500$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.67 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 55c | 1,326$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.29 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed No | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +542.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 31c | 914$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.58 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305e…e8d9backed Yes | 69c | 800$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 39c | 688.93$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.96 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…1181backed Yes | 80c | 539.73$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.73 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 23c | 500$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked No | 45c | 416.82$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.8 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 26c | 413.58$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb207…bbd0backed No | 26c | 410.24$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 50c | 390.96$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.19 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…7d0fbacked Yes | 61c | 330.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 39c | 306.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.07 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 27c | 296$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 50c | 203.4$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 29c | 203$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 200.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed No | 35c | 137.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb59c…9b66backed Yes | 75c | 133.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 50c | 131.27$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 123$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa137…06d7backed No | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 17c | 113.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5355…fae9backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 27c | 86.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…1899backed Yes | 66c | 68.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +127%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…cdd7backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…d8efbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +82%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf94…402dbacked No | 36c | 36.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 53c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 32.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a8…74bdbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -57%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will D66 win 20 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?this page
- Will D66 win 16–17 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will D66 win 18–19 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will D66 win fewer than 16 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.