TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will PVV win 27–29 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$155,262
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$125,844

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,262 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x06dc…af59backed Yes20c14,052$2,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,862.919345.2%42 W · 51 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+22.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes5c10,562$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.610127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes19c8,289$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.086149.2%30 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.18per pick31cpaid+90%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1c59…ba33backed Yes0c6,109$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab03…5c70backed Yes5c5,135$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.721060%6 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+31.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c5,100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.24440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd829…95f9backed Yes13c5,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6601118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-75.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xceab…cce0backed Yes1c4,764$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4365…4076backed Yes7c2,858$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-49.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x036e…9276backed No78c2,565$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.34540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-48.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x310b…b12abacked Yes6c1,792$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1f…7d0fbacked Yes24c1,637$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+64.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf138…7201backed Yes5c1,631$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa154…321cbacked Yes21c1,415$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0841…f577backed Yes8c1,387$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4af…e2dbbacked Yes5c1,236$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes10c1,225$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.245614.3%8 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe645…345abacked Yes9c1,161$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9c…1115backed Yes23c865.31$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.885520%11 W · 44 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+86.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes5c824.74$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8734726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes4c759.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.594766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes21c749.04$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.641513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c698.81$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.731,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes22c622.91$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.7416029.4%47 W · 113 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes18c557.65$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1744921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xead6…5a43backed Yes9c522.43$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-55.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes19c507.53$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1743243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed Yes21c499.72$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.775044%22 W · 28 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+223.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ce…ebf3backed Yes22c445.18$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65ec…8e4bbacked Yes23c439.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+364.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01a4…0064backed Yes23c409.47$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+52.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x355f…0df8backed Yes29c344.98$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.952913.8%4 W · 25 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-8.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes22c300$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6619027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes22c290.46$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.73147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid+10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes7c274.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.651,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Yes21c238.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505437%20 W · 34 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+22.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbe2…b355backed Yes21c237.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-48.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe136…6918backed Yes18c226$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.72128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-86.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2393…f110backed Yes19c226$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab4…404abacked Yes19c220.89$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8888…5b57backed Yes6c220$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No79c217.3$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.464161%25 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+30.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a0a…96edbacked Yes25c216.1$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6cc…1413backed Yes21c214.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed No79c211.55$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.775435.2%19 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes22c200$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.56634.8%23 W · 43 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes6c171.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes6c164.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4237117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes19c150.1$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.029237%34 W · 58 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddfd…0855backed Yes19c150$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-40.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb32b…f0c9backed Yes17c149.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes21c145.89$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5288448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9674…f56cbacked Yes18c127.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c4c…068ebacked Yes8c120$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes22c120$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.631534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7e7…280dbacked Yes18c110.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5355…fae9backed Yes20c105$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.551428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ccb…3135backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74af…8988backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211040%4 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+406%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1088…b813backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2113639%53 W · 83 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x042f…f951backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-75.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7de…ad2cbacked Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc1…5fbbbacked Yes21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-49.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac0…5e77backed Yes22c90.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.13633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6544…c0f8backed Yes22c79.2$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79df…f6c1backed Yes19c78.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-73.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc682…4d90backed Yes29c71.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe0…b26cbacked Yes21c71.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580%0 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed Yes22c71.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.641921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-54.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e79…6c9bbacked Yes23c66.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-61.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c20…9e4fbacked Yes19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41428.6%4 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick14cpaid+234.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4a0…2f88backed Yes36c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.47837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+317.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad11…a223backed No80c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3499…ffe6backed Yes25c57.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2340%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94b6…7b36backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bc7…2229backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e63…61c2backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e26…fdefbacked Yes21c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+104.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a4a…02ebbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90a…06b7backed No79c15.74$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.371346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.