TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will PVV win 26 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$163,764
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$177,904

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,764 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x036e…9276backed Yes78c49,921$39,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,754.09540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-48.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes21c11,036$2,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,723.949345.2%42 W · 51 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+22.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes62c5,999$3,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,279.6111853.4%63 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No23c5,496$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.056149.2%30 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.18per pick31cpaid+90%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes60c5,172$3,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.223540%14 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c5,100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.34440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes44c4,396$1,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,480.1325337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1f…7d0fbacked Yes28c3,783$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,733.031040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+64.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc833…0234backed Yes75c2,500$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed No50c1,967$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.615044%22 W · 28 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+223.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x45c3…42f9backed Yes67c1,747$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.172740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+50.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No5c1,490$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.076883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d5a…9f6bbacked No13c1,430$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No25c1,328$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.6510127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No50c1,313$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.4257636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x849a…44aabacked No40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13a9…c40dbacked No38c1,213$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.840%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x251c…0292backed No40c1,180$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No31c1,010$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.85614.3%8 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca6…a262backed No39c1,000$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed No29c1,000$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.288641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd829…95f9backed No28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-75.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked No40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40013334.6%46 W · 87 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ec…7b2ebacked No79c1,000$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.51957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf66c…4ab1backed No1c976.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.723116.1%5 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+45.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes70c908.32$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.4734726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No33c861.83$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.411428.9%33 W · 81 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6653…110dbacked Yes25c797.08$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.11560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+231.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No26c749.91$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.4532255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfc7…f824backed No18c699.99$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f7b…3f03backed No39c641.03$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-72.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes64c591.61$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.551338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-35.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes61c573.91$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.1243243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes78c555$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.5631534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No73c531.49$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.079627.1%26 W · 70 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd687…c066backed No51c529.17$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.88911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-80.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca44…6d4ebacked No49c505.52$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes24c500$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38019027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No36c499.99$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1803925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-43.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes29c470.15$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.7924736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb28c…be33backed Yes78c466.54$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.71020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-70.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked No34c408.07$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.564168.3%28 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+8.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed No31c402.05$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12560%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked No40c350$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1405437%20 W · 34 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+22.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes9c326.89$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.71676.6%11 W · 156 L-0.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf57d…d8efbacked Yes21c304.5$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.291145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+82%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f28…d846backed No36c300.17$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0940%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Yes67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked No38c288.69$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.75925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No75c272.63$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.1416029.4%47 W · 113 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x310b…b12abacked No41c270$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed No78c256.39$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.981921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-54.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes17c255$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2113426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed No62c250$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.74555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4365…4076backed No37c230.57$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-49.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No79c200$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1584161%25 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+30.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x477f…1c61backed No14c198.46$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe300…da5abacked Yes66c196.82$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1be2…cab9backed No58c196.55$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11440%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes13c195.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.12445.8%11 W · 13 L+7.4wins+0.31per pick15cpaid+216.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes33c187.83$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.681,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x282c…c772backed Yes22c182.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.53862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes8c177.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.437225%18 W · 54 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+262.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb476…2d87backed No42c176.23$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.48425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed No66c174.01$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.076530.8%20 W · 45 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-34.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2bdd…310fbacked No60c165.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3fc0…d42fbacked Yes62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.291225%3 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No17c160.66$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6656314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes64c156.59$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.978854.5%48 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06ee…19f6backed Yes24c150$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114771.4%5 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.50per pick22cpaid+1,036.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb080…610dbacked Yes64c140.11$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No74c135.36$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7511039.1%43 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74af…8988backed Yes16c125$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1051040%4 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+406%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8f0…b401backed No43c117.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33f7…7a46backed Yes79c113.05$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.232222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79eb…f471backed No36c111.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38fb…b8b6backed Yes30c109.93$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac0c…739cbacked No46c109.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No40c106.14$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4517921.2%38 W · 141 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe457…1ac2backed No38c105.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b3e…9914backed Yes24c102.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ccb…3135backed Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a47…2f43backed No33c99.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3360%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5fc…7374backed No24c90.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed No34c87.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.593010%3 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes18c86.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.620325.6%52 W · 151 L-0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes21c84.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8148224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x148a…7e84backed Yes24c83.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+86.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No24c82.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5937117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7af5…46d3backed Yes63c80.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.79560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes23c80$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.98328.9%24 W · 59 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e6a…7a67backed Yes25c77.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+100%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes19c74.42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4444921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No79c74$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4610741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fe…2511backed No37c72.56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes15c68.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.979418.1%17 W · 77 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes74c65.64$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1212133.1%40 W · 81 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes19c64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.841,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5114…fa9ebacked Yes65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.81540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5faf…e77abacked Yes65c59.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.