World Politics · resolved market
Will PVV win 30–32 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84cc8763a6b3d8cf93d8fcd615539cc49edb6732d8569331434a5b6cc8096599
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ca6…a262backed Yes | 10c | 6,287$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 20c | 3,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 23c | 2,886$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.9 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 11c | 2,782$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,387$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 18c | 1,334$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.35 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd829…95f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889b…1aa6backed Yes | 11c | 948.18$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 11c | 926.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa154…321cbacked Yes | 12c | 900$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbd…3008backed Yes | 10c | 870$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 20c | 865.2$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 17c | 849.93$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.13 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4365…4076backed Yes | 11c | 681.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…f110backed Yes | 10c | 670.64$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…0de8backed Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9674…f56cbacked Yes | 17c | 380.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 80c | 336.22$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…6918backed Yes | 10c | 322$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed Yes | 31c | 312.82$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…1181backed No | 75c | 307.23$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.68 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…b0a4backed Yes | 24c | 291.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 22c | 266.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 26c | 261$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 17c | 226.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb84…e3d1backed Yes | 22c | 213.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Yes | 8c | 212.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…5fbbbacked Yes | 10c | 195.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e72…8215backed Yes | 28c | 172.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c65…e105backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…2821backed Yes | 19c | 162.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6073…4021backed Yes | 7c | 152.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 78c | 144.45$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc20d…b64ebacked Yes | 30c | 129.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 28c | 122.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 74c | 121.11$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50f…d974backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94b6…7b36backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb975…ce42backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…6cf1backed Yes | 27c | 99.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe22…d483backed Yes | 22c | 89.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea44…3168backed Yes | 28c | 82.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac0…5e77backed Yes | 27c | 74.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…b355backed Yes | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…71b7backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 77c | 52.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc7…2229backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 73c | 42.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…2f88backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +317.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 26.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 73c | 25.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a69…a466backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PVV win 30–32 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?this page
- Will PVV win 26 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will PVV win 27–29 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will PVV win 33 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.