AI · resolved market
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec55a54ebdac02a2cda17e21f25cb9ecbbb76fddd7744a6023efc8d475216ae1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 4c | 24,980$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.12 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 7c | 13,688$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.78 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 6c | 7,083$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.6 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 5,249$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.7 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…904abacked Yes | 3c | 3,012$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed Yes | 4c | 2,100$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 7c | 2,059$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 7c | 1,566$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes | 7c | 1,431$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd486…2287backed Yes | 5c | 1,352$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b78…2637backed Yes | 6c | 1,127$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,111$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked Yes | 31c | 996.46$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.63 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 929.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbef…4cd2backed Yes | 7c | 688.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d2…73c2backed Yes | 5c | 630$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b54…bac5backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 42c | 440.25$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.44 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed Yes | 34c | 404.55$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…ca87backed Yes | 8c | 389.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…4ae5backed Yes | 5c | 388.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf389…e45dbacked Yes | 5c | 387.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 68c | 358.35$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.85 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 26c | 350$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 48c | 347.54$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.22 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc499…f793backed Yes | 35c | 333.79$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.83 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.29per pick | 47cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9b…7285backed Yes | 12c | 332.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.11 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…e62abacked Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7c…4721backed Yes | 5c | 255.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5355…fae9backed Yes | 9c | 249.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 8c | 240$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c8…3fdcbacked Yes | 58c | 206.19$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 64c | 201.65$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…4fb7backed Yes | 7c | 200.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 57c | 195.06$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 65c | 187.52$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.08 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff7…3eb8backed Yes | 9c | 169.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e30…3adfbacked No | 78c | 160.24$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…cb3dbacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfabf…c681backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 7c | 143$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 41c | 141.65$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…d476backed Yes | 9c | 141.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…57f5backed Yes | 24c | 132.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…0e38backed No | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb9…bdd4backed Yes | 59c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 117$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 16c | 115$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 17c | 114.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd6…dbf2backed Yes | 27c | 101.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 94.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…2515backed Yes | 23c | 87.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 65c | 82.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa170…742abacked Yes | 38c | 79.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 73c | 71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa547…bf03backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…b45fbacked Yes | 21c | 50.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…5c9dbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…9490backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 69c | 36.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee8…3352backed No | 69c | 28.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…b6fcbacked No | 79c | 25.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3f…cc4fbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 15?this page
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15?Yes won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 20?Yes won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?No won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?No won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.