AI · resolved market
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a42f2fb380e4ac3f4e64ea97756bb6fdc5c3f76a9f492d30437487a1f3e688e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $184,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 14,580$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 8c | 13,807$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,664.86 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…6623backed Yes | 0c | 13,002$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c1…bd51backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,827$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 39c | 4,514$1,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,771.38 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 19c | 3,243$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.71 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 43c | 3,236$1,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.64 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 14c | 2,433$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,094.37 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…0029backed No | 43c | 1,544$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.92 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34d4…1bb3backed No | 75c | 1,385$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c0…de12backed No | 15c | 1,246$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…327fbacked No | 77c | 1,207$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 43c | 1,157$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.2 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb257…0ef6backed Yes | 2c | 1,150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 55c | 1,119$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.56 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed No | 6c | 1,095$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.44 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…e62abacked Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 13c | 871.55$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +8.3wins | +0.38per pick | 17cpaid | +297.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 31c | 848.22$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 11c | 822.96$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.42 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…ede8backed No | 71c | 798.54$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…bdafbacked No | 8c | 710.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…f4a0backed No | 70c | 706.49$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.95 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed No | 63c | 687.84$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 3c | 647$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked Yes | 58c | 644.83$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…2280backed No | 47c | 621.64$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa447…cc98backed No | 39c | 620.3$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 42cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed Yes | 79c | 557.42$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.38 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Yes | 62c | 475.01$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab70…2c34backed Yes | 76c | 454.71$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 445.43$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 17c | 444.57$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.99 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed No | 69c | 414.24$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.39 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…5458backed No | 8c | 406$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +170.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…36f6backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Yes | 55c | 384.58$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f40…a69cbacked No | 44c | 377$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…28e0backed Yes | 76c | 350.02$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…79e6backed Yes | 66c | 349.46$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 41c | 336.3$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.88 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 15c | 335$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 72c | 332.25$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.22 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed No | 53c | 324.09$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.37 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb65…b090backed Yes | 9c | 323.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked No | 16c | 308.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.75 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 5c | 299.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.99 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 45c | 278.26$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.11 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…9ad7backed No | 31c | 241$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 42c | 237.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.73 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1158…069bbacked Yes | 75c | 235.11$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be3…724dbacked No | 49c | 230.47$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…2113backed No | 9c | 230$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +329.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3d…d571backed Yes | 16c | 223.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048d…a493backed Yes | 21c | 199.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked No | 47c | 199.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6e…c8a0backed Yes | 21c | 187$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes | 10c | 181.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…684abacked Yes | 22c | 170$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefab…b927backed No | 16c | 158.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 18c | 150$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked No | 39c | 149.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…17d6backed Yes | 35c | 146.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 10c | 143.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.6 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc81c…e454backed No | 78c | 140$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked Yes | 61c | 138.71$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd904…4295backed Yes | 25c | 129.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 46c | 122.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…2e44backed Yes | 19c | 119.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 25c | 115.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b78…2637backed No | 28c | 114.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…7c6dbacked Yes | 22c | 114.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c6…b9a7backed No | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…2a96backed No | 75c | 111$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 16c | 106.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…7f2abacked Yes | 28c | 105.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 16c | 103.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.76 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1268…834bbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked No | 32c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…64a5backed No | 12c | 89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…2aaebacked Yes | 16c | 79.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked Yes | 58c | 76.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…57f5backed No | 17c | 75.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…cdd7backed No | 76c | 69.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…f88cbacked Yes | 26c | 67.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…8304backed No | 51c | 65.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 79c | 61.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 75cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb62e…203cbacked No | 52c | 61.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…613fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c7…848fbacked No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0804…049dbacked No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…f711backed Yes | 24c | 42.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?this page
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 15?No won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15?Yes won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 20?Yes won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?No won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.