AI · resolved market
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d235edb5e8ce065ad4eca19e994f4475555463ccba89e1a69e3c11c79abadf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 7c | 18,525$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.02 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 14,880$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 5c | 9,100$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.2 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 17c | 6,757$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.76 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 13c | 2,081$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.8 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 10c | 1,565$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.77 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 10c | 1,121$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.6 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 6c | 1,013$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 9c | 999.96$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 20c | 888$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…57f5backed No | 7c | 604.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc158…f3cabacked Yes | 80c | 532.57$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 11c | 522.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 8c | 464.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed No | 10c | 448.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…cf4abacked No | 8c | 446.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ad…80f6backed No | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…1377backed No | 9c | 224.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…6ca8backed No | 14c | 207.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 6c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed No | 12c | 159.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…d0babacked No | 14c | 140.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 10c | 135$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd7…8fb7backed No | 15c | 132.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…3b73backed No | 24c | 63.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…3db7backed No | 30c | 54.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…40afbacked Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 20?this page
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 15?No won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15?Yes won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?No won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?No won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.