AI · resolved market
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ae1bf250c1babcae7d4fac2a76ee9ebfe92b1b6ffb9459d48e73fe5a811de64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 240 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 51c | 9,799$5,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,759.62 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 29c | 7,176$2,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,093.36 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 6c | 6,605$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.24 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 41c | 5,147$2,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,126.05 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +87%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 56c | 5,023$2,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,212.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 27c | 4,100$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed Yes | 37c | 3,753$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 16c | 3,666$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.37 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 27c | 3,340$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,428.51 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 3c | 3,326$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes | 54c | 2,805$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 63c | 2,649$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.85 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 18c | 2,519$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.93 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd9…8d0dbacked No | 30c | 2,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53f…f455backed Yes | 48c | 2,302$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 55c | 2,236$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.75 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 60c | 2,211$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…8a19backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b41…82b7backed Yes | 23c | 1,780$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 17c | 1,714$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.8 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 72c | 1,706$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.43 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…74e9backed Yes | 25c | 1,622$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…4692backed No | 67c | 1,503$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…f60abacked Yes | 76c | 1,501$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.06 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 73c | 1,500$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.41 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 37c | 1,420$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.86 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc74…216cbacked Yes | 54c | 1,420$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 52c | 1,124$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.23 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…0029backed Yes | 40c | 1,089$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…dfd1backed Yes | 57c | 1,053$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…cdbfbacked Yes | 78c | 999.99$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 30c | 934.46$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.71 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 55c | 890.23$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.43 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…ca16backed Yes | 79c | 850$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 51c | 800$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.71 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 9c | 799.97$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…c5debacked Yes | 20c | 776.6$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 58c | 716.99$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.33 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes | 69c | 682.3$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc6…81aabacked No | 74c | 675.1$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…8138backed Yes | 64c | 668.69$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 57c | 653.19$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ca…2eebbacked Yes | 42c | 650.54$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 77c | 639.84$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e80…0063backed No | 46c | 583.37$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2a…d21cbacked Yes | 70c | 560$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 43c | 556.12$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.91 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 552.91$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.39 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 13c | 545.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 44c | 536$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.8 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 45c | 516.05$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.22 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd85b…fd58backed No | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf25f…a9e9backed Yes | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…d143backed Yes | 46c | 499.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…2dadbacked Yes | 16c | 498.25$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Yes | 51c | 492.11$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfe…5f1ebacked Yes | 54c | 491.82$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 77c | 480$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…5874backed Yes | 70c | 462$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…621ebacked Yes | 14c | 446.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc499…f793backed Yes | 56c | 416$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.29per pick | 47cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 68c | 410.39$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.56 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…bcb2backed Yes | 70c | 410$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1277…13d8backed Yes | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf735…9223backed Yes | 70c | 400$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cb…fbf5backed No | 69c | 399.99$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa473…87febacked Yes | 70c | 383$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…7e30backed No | 63c | 376.6$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…87a4backed Yes | 48c | 369.58$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.87 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d13…a252backed Yes | 15c | 365.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 34c | 350$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4717…beaebacked Yes | 11c | 318$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…1be4backed Yes | 28c | 314.52$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 50c | 310.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.37 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed Yes | 24c | 306.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7513…110dbacked No | 50c | 299.98$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 32c | 299.97$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.98 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…38ffbacked Yes | 70c | 285$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…0b03backed Yes | 44c | 275.59$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 257.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x647d…3cd9backed No | 45c | 250$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…7f5cbacked Yes | 10c | 249.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1354…8256backed Yes | 64c | 233.8$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…2862backed No | 74c | 232$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +121%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…6c07backed No | 75c | 229.6$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3612…177ebacked Yes | 58c | 228.47$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 74c | 222.22$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 70c | 220$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 63c | 219.63$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.03 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 52c | 210.39$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x872c…40e0backed No | 68c | 209.46$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 57c | 207.87$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.46 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67dc…a64bbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x485f…f682backed Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Yes | 57c | 194.42$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…1f67backed No | 51c | 192.76$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05cd…949bbacked Yes | 57c | 187.09$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?this page
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 15?No won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15?Yes won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 20?Yes won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?No won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.