AI · resolved market
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x348b74062713e6280f340ae5d13f0f510f9c964f7d5ab8a3debc63f4f7d99fcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 5c | 3,041$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,896.32 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 22c | 2,102$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.1 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 19c | 963.69$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.75 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 5c | 697.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.3 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 29c | 679.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.41 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0713…2f2cbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +469.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 6c | 499.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…4003backed No | 67c | 319.22$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.52 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 296.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.63 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 46c | 260.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 259.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…a183backed Yes | 37c | 230$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…42fbbacked Yes | 54c | 185.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…60bdbacked Yes | 57c | 174.24$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked No | 50c | 155.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1d…e3c3backed Yes | 35c | 152.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 44c | 148.46$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.51 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 132$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…a3f4backed Yes | 75c | 127.09$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 41c | 125.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.19 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed No | 78c | 123.38$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 12c | 115.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes | 68c | 101.9$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f7…77c3backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 14c | 84.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.26 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 41c | 84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked No | 54c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…ec06backed No | 43c | 61.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 59c | 53.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 49cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…fc51backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…8fe8backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce6f…5eebbacked No | 59c | 32.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…521cbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff86…284fbacked No | 70c | 14.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 3?this page
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 15?No won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15?Yes won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 20?Yes won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?No won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.