AI · resolved market
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1f7e5ed03ce122f841fb3e548a214b7a4e106fd2e3f24ce3023b1e0a11b097a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $167,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $181,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 242 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 8c | 16,218$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.56 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 30c | 14,479$4,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,338.82 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 5c | 13,684$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.16 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…f60abacked Yes | 78c | 4,574$3,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 28c | 4,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.99 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…106abacked No | 26c | 4,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…2c9abacked No | 59c | 3,876$2,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,287.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 16c | 3,440$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 13c | 3,107$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.49 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked Yes | 52c | 2,861$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.93 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 1c | 2,222$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 52c | 2,104$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.92 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 8c | 2,096$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.07 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc158…f3cabacked Yes | 75c | 2,078$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.99 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 30c | 1,864$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.37 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1773…f4e3backed Yes | 66c | 1,815$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.61 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af5…2470backed Yes | 70c | 1,755$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab7…99c7backed Yes | 54c | 1,733$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked No | 20c | 1,650$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…9fc9backed Yes | 77c | 1,499$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x561f…a932backed Yes | 73c | 1,495$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed Yes | 73c | 1,374$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 47c | 1,346$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.61 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c47…5a56backed Yes | 47c | 1,313$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed Yes | 74c | 1,302$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 1,300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 27c | 1,300$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.5 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 26c | 1,288$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.68 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb9…bdd4backed Yes | 79c | 1,110$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 69c | 999.98$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d1…1060backed No | 19c | 962.42$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 27c | 907.01$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.21 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…8ab1backed Yes | 68c | 888.77$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3295…ce54backed Yes | 80c | 876.11$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes | 80c | 857.51$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 769.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…9ff6backed Yes | 80c | 755.04$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 12c | 749.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.78 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a93…ecf9backed Yes | 70c | 714$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…191cbacked Yes | 37c | 706.88$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.18 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…882dbacked Yes | 59c | 678$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfe…5f1ebacked No | 52c | 651.93$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 29c | 600$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed No | 31c | 566.17$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +191%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…f4a0backed Yes | 73c | 548.5$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed Yes | 53c | 538.94$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 10c | 530$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 521.74$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.4 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 72c | 501.78$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.28 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc5…247cbacked No | 31c | 486.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…5fdfbacked Yes | 78c | 480.05$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.61 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…085ebacked No | 30c | 474.02$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…87c4backed No | 5c | 432.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 41c | 427.8$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.2 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x837d…8a0dbacked No | 23c | 417.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…58e4backed Yes | 79c | 417$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 55c | 411.79$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.57 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…48a2backed No | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +162.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 41c | 400$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked No | 32c | 399.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd733…38cabacked Yes | 70c | 389.56$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8164…a639backed Yes | 65c | 378.37$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f78…f3a0backed Yes | 80c | 376.83$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc689…ad74backed Yes | 79c | 346.81$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…2b77backed No | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 25c | 321.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 318.94$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.75 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc9…0101backed No | 64c | 314.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 68c | 314.17$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.27 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…87a4backed Yes | 45c | 310$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.6 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…7e0dbacked Yes | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 49cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc74…216cbacked Yes | 61c | 299.76$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked Yes | 32c | 294.21$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…a21fbacked Yes | 50c | 290.64$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.32 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 56c | 289.23$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.13 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79e…eac5backed Yes | 71c | 281.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x628d…1f4cbacked No | 18c | 278.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…16c1backed Yes | 57c | 274.69$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 8c | 264.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 44c | 258.91$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.23 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…70d7backed Yes | 50c | 258.47$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a30…d332backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…5cc9backed Yes | 41c | 241.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed Yes | 80c | 223.33$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab70…2c34backed Yes | 46c | 217.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…1377backed Yes | 77c | 215$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ef…25c3backed No | 74c | 205.35$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 36c | 202.14$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.76 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 27c | 200.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.03 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…ffa3backed Yes | 71c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…a17cbacked Yes | 78c | 199.61$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…4060backed No | 15c | 196.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ca…ca7cbacked Yes | 73c | 195$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked No | 52c | 192.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…086abacked Yes | 48c | 191.33$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 181.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fc…0109backed No | 28c | 180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15?this page
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 15?No won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 20?Yes won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?No won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?No won
- Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.