TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7f20…086a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
89
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: World Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 56 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$410Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+102.2%+$418.83
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.83
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.99
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$70.23
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$22.69
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Egypt summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+37%+$5.45
Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$28.78
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$38.11
Will Israel not raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 10 ET?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.73
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 2 ET?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$156.68
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$850Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+27.5%+$233.53
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$164.33
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+124.9%+$78.96
All 14 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+185.3%+$92.66
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$54.21
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.17
Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$40.18
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+123.2%+$61.61
Will Jean-Louis Borloo be the next Prime Minister of France?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+54.5%+$82.73
Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+111.3%+$155.89
France debt downgrade by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.99
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next Prime Minister of France?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+96.7%+$26.01
Will the next Pope be from Europe?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$84
Will another person be the next Pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.05
All 12 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-57%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$186.27
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+50.5%+$53.32
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Sep 25, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$61
Will AS Roma win on 2025-09-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$156.33
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Euro Basket: Italy vs Sloveniabacked Slovenia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$172.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Sep 6, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralhobacked Imavov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$141.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Sep 22, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$409.86
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.