World Politics · resolved market
France debt downgrade by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35848101a0fdac1912242eb5e4978598efe68b7d3aef69bb0df4a4d9cbfbd08f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x961a…73acbacked No | 27c | 2,659$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.53 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 14c | 1,204$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.98 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes | 70c | 768.49$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.02 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 73c | 230.81$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d0…22b5backed No | 45c | 194.57$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a7…d755backed Yes | 65c | 147.69$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f42…e44ebacked Yes | 75c | 144.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc636…de88backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0d…c6bebacked No | 16c | 115.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Yes | 67c | 103.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…236dbacked Yes | 73c | 94.94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc3…46f9backed Yes | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…086abacked No | 35c | 84.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb72…aa19backed No | 36c | 69.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 23c | 64.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…fcc9backed Yes | 76c | 62.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa444…800dbacked No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…20d8backed Yes | 73c | 54.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cc…b1ccbacked Yes | 76c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e85…40c4backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a1…e41abacked Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a4…84a0backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 30c | 42.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cc…5130backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +213.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a0…9e85backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…ee80backed No | 30c | 33.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…158fbacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…1c7bbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…ab3dbacked Yes | 69c | 29.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…fe62backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…d186backed Yes | 67c | 28.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…13cdbacked No | 39c | 25.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb090…9a6ebacked Yes | 78c | 25.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd408…0883backed Yes | 61c | 24.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…f07abacked Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…a5ffbacked Yes | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 60c | 21.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x513f…1492backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…fc33backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…d9a1backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bee…0b93backed Yes | 69c | 15.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.