Chess · resolved market
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Grand Chess Tour Finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x309cb9c363e26ffbd8d6243ba360e8fb3064a957e9e335d0fd85f93e337e5040
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 29c | 2,114$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.46 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Yes | 58c | 1,980$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed No | 63c | 1,015$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.12 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Yes | 26c | 700$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 50c | 668.27$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d4…d3aabacked Yes | 57c | 552.98$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.4 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 60c | 433.91$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.12 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 22c | 381.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.31 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae2…9d52backed Yes | 24c | 274.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +308.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked No | 46c | 181.2$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked No | 54c | 180.18$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed Yes | 32c | 158.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 56c | 156$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb24…ac2cbacked Yes | 29c | 139.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…679ebacked Yes | 55c | 129.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…c030backed No | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked No | 70c | 116$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 115.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.37 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…086abacked No | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…31b1backed No | 53c | 107.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 40c | 104$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 40c | 100.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0c…e082backed Yes | 68c | 95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fc…3256backed Yes | 33c | 78.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 73.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…ef6abacked Yes | 29c | 72.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +141.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 36c | 69.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe520…28b0backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed91…fbeabacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…8a16backed No | 71c | 47.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d9…ab03backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 44c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff00…49a5backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 68c | 23.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Grand Chess Tour Finals?this page
- Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Grand Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 Grand Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa win the 2025 Grand Chess Tour Finals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.