Chess · resolved market
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 Grand Chess Tour Finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x923bbf4482bf5181cbe6637dfbe5f001faeee91364756993d074e8974be6c824
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 27c | 1,644$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.65 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,235$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d4…d3aabacked Yes | 65c | 1,112$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.01 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 1,026$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb24…ac2cbacked No | 78c | 850$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 36c | 693.64$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.94 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed Yes | 45c | 678$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.21 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed No | 63c | 531.58$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 43c | 241.07$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 25c | 239.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…086abacked Yes | 43c | 231.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 21c | 217.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 58c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc25c…36fcbacked Yes | 8c | 195.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 49c | 128$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…4832backed No | 79c | 126.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b16…a4fcbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf72c…f818backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…012bbacked Yes | 23c | 98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…a398backed Yes | 62c | 97.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 55c | 77.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d6…7cc2backed Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 36c | 72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 76c | 63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…679ebacked Yes | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…2782backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec9…d296backed Yes | 45c | 43.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…8a16backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…31b1backed Yes | 31c | 35.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x754f…4e38backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f07…10a3backed No | 57c | 21.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 21.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 Grand Chess Tour Finals?this page
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Grand Chess Tour Finals?Yes won
- Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Grand Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa win the 2025 Grand Chess Tour Finals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.