Us Politics · resolved market
US government shutdown by October 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09b3e4c716df2579afa0ede1bf00edd84f8cbe1e335785f90336e7a909c52f8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,491,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,089,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,491,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,578 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0914…9c93backed No | 1c | 498,934$7,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,235.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…e33ebacked No | 0c | 365,987$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 79c | 361,457$287,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,242.3 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…ba82backed No | 20c | 325,697$65,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,139.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4324…9dccbacked No | 5c | 275,340$12,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,501.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 73c | 229,070$167,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61,461.98 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828f…60bbbacked No | 11c | 198,698$21,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,647.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed No | 0c | 184,000$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e98…1f51backed Yes | 68c | 182,417$124,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,855.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 79c | 148,940$117,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,570.52 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 75c | 142,959$106,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,199.33 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…f6f7backed No | 3c | 138,373$4,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,390.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…475cbacked No | 21c | 126,170$25,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,910 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…1b36backed Yes | 74c | 119,602$88,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,685.56 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8aa…98c0backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…9875backed No | 39c | 91,783$35,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,453.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…15c3backed No | 7c | 84,626$6,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,067 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b3…28f4backed No | 5c | 74,265$3,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,487.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…fcc4backed No | 2c | 73,867$1,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,690.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…26adbacked No | 0c | 73,195$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…a21ebacked No | 4c | 69,457$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9994…03ddbacked No | 0c | 68,011$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 2c | 67,296$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.68 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…e2efbacked No | 0c | 66,667$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 77c | 65,083$49,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,180.17 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…9b0fbacked Yes | 71c | 65,018$46,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,947.43 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf61…65ddbacked No | 27c | 64,479$17,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,231.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c8…73cebacked Yes | 76c | 57,712$43,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,095.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…bf33backed Yes | 75c | 56,959$42,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,244.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ee…67b5backed No | 22c | 56,261$12,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,383.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…8420backed No | 24c | 55,430$13,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,215.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 10c | 54,527$5,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,432.71 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3816…0668backed No | 1c | 51,902$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae1…c13ebacked No | 3c | 50,088$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.85 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf8…8da5backed No | 2c | 48,574$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727f…09cbbacked No | 4c | 46,794$1,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,658 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed No | 24c | 45,887$11,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,001.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 2c | 45,562$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.25 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…a260backed No | 4c | 45,296$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…688fbacked No | 22c | 43,449$9,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,735.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 36c | 42,584$15,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,396.11 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…6bfdbacked No | 0c | 42,052$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…1515backed No | 8c | 41,697$3,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,497 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 79c | 39,999$31,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,299.89 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 75c | 38,755$28,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,788.71 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fa…8a55backed Yes | 65c | 37,990$24,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,412.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 72c | 37,859$27,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,756.58 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 70c | 37,125$26,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,045.55 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…07f0backed No | 3c | 36,537$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 74c | 35,625$26,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,094.9 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cec…dc3ebacked No | 1c | 35,587$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f1…11eebacked Yes | 72c | 35,156$25,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,843.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…699abacked No | 0c | 34,502$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2044…cabcbacked No | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…c2d9backed No | 11c | 33,154$3,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,747.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…43b0backed No | 1c | 32,641$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf513…0e80backed No | 25c | 32,502$8,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,095.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa5…6bc9backed No | 5c | 32,373$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3864…23e1backed No | 2c | 31,982$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 2c | 31,648$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.91 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…79abbacked No | 13c | 31,207$3,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,995 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4840…70d6backed No | 3c | 31,117$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0a…2353backed No | 0c | 30,685$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 79c | 30,685$24,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,297.18 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 26c | 30,350$7,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,791.49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 69c | 30,047$20,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,295.66 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x800f…3586backed No | 37c | 29,714$10,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,998.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a6…06b7backed No | 11c | 29,511$3,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,277.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1af…701ebacked No | 4c | 29,131$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e22…8017backed No | 5c | 28,991$1,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,592 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b2…307dbacked No | 8c | 28,155$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…3c3dbacked No | 3c | 27,680$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 69c | 27,605$18,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,622.67 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498a…2c34backed No | 0c | 27,198$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2646…7800backed No | 0c | 26,907$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes | 71c | 26,658$18,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,776.86 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60a…1619backed No | 2c | 25,555$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c44…f6b4backed No | 4c | 25,056$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…cb35backed No | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…f347backed No | 34c | 25,000$8,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,449.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…abeabacked No | 0c | 24,500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…2966backed Yes | 77c | 24,292$18,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,474.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…8fe1backed No | 6c | 24,276$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf8…7519backed No | 16c | 24,097$3,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,768.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…cb4fbacked No | 29c | 22,834$6,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,524.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9239…1947backed No | 0c | 22,456$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 14c | 22,169$3,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,212.24 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Yes | 63c | 22,105$13,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,157.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed No | 1c | 20,910$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23a0…8989backed No | 48c | 20,810$9,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,995 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc97…0238backed No | 3c | 20,343$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x104a…5b05backed No | 25c | 20,007$4,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,928.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…edeabacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…846fbacked No | 7c | 20,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed Yes | 67c | 20,000$13,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,599.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 71c | 19,773$14,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,644.19 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 66c | 19,685$13,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,684.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e2…dd0abacked No | 0c | 19,543$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2576…62dfbacked No | 24c | 19,422$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 70c | 18,849$13,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,732.58 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.