World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1480b819d03d4b6388d70e848b0384adf38c38d955cb783cdbcf6d4a436dee14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,555,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,928,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,555,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 7,336 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xffe9…1599backed Yes | 56c | 420,948$236,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184,724.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…ad91backed No | 31c | 408,232$128,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128,304.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…d19abacked Yes | 60c | 357,228$215,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142,090.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…07ddbacked Yes | 57c | 350,006$198,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151,136.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab82…abe5backed Yes | 69c | 329,803$227,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102,472.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…6356backed Yes | 69c | 299,654$206,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92,996.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca76…28b3backed No | 36c | 284,406$101,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101,706.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0e…cf87backed Yes | 64c | 268,669$171,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96,693.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No | 45c | 214,936$97,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97,271.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 198,799$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.56 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x016a…848dbacked Yes | 61c | 179,808$109,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70,155.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked No | 46c | 160,452$74,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74,392.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 44cpaid | -81%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 71c | 138,484$98,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,481.64 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…9489backed No | 35c | 129,255$44,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,901.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked No | 38c | 120,608$46,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,262.85 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa8…5937backed Yes | 53c | 120,371$63,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,543.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9265…2cc0backed Yes | 65c | 111,429$71,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,439.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded3…fe68backed Yes | 54c | 101,429$54,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,809.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f87…f277backed No | 33c | 100,000$33,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,107.88 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d1…32b8backed No | 43c | 99,568$42,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,375.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 66c | 97,831$64,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,073.99 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…109dbacked Yes | 70c | 96,254$67,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,235.92 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77da…024abacked No | 30c | 91,483$27,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,445 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 75c | 90,000$67,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,850 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b62…4c23backed Yes | 69c | 81,016$55,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,283.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c68…6162backed No | 1c | 76,434$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes | 67c | 71,875$48,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,483.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…f2ddbacked No | 18c | 71,059$13,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,000.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 73c | 70,062$51,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,896.47 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 61c | 66,739$40,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,094.41 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1071…169bbacked Yes | 63c | 64,735$40,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,745.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…6f11backed Yes | 77c | 63,069$48,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,751.09 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6edd…728cbacked Yes | 66c | 60,676$40,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,665.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16b…cd12backed No | 21c | 58,414$11,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,990.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Yes | 68c | 58,014$39,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,588.07 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…febbbacked No | 11c | 56,683$6,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,007.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 32c | 55,092$17,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,427.27 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…c686backed Yes | 64c | 54,880$35,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,776.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…8a97backed No | 29c | 52,719$15,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,495.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked No | 17c | 51,666$8,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,672.13 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 72c | 51,000$36,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,331.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…08bcbacked Yes | 75c | 50,626$37,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,708.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…158bbacked No | 29c | 50,000$14,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 74c | 49,335$36,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,612.98 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…459cbacked No | 29c | 49,279$14,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,065.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa527…4228backed Yes | 64c | 48,646$31,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,632.92 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.46per pick | 40cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed No | 23c | 47,219$10,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,785.81 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed Yes | 66c | 45,291$29,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,541.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 0c | 45,200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.6 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…da5ebacked Yes | 69c | 44,718$31,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,718.43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x744c…e37fbacked Yes | 72c | 44,595$32,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,368.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bf…451cbacked No | 48c | 44,321$21,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0340…6907backed Yes | 56c | 43,115$24,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,761 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 17c | 42,861$7,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,492.05 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed No | 28c | 42,548$12,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,066.2 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…6c15backed No | 6c | 42,495$2,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,551.45 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc131…f290backed No | 1c | 42,000$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…73d7backed Yes | 72c | 41,030$29,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,488.48 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…239cbacked No | 26c | 40,580$10,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,700 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…784ebacked No | 1c | 40,331$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d1…d24fbacked No | 28c | 40,129$11,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,364.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…1ba4backed Yes | 57c | 40,000$22,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,351.38 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…972abacked No | 43c | 39,924$17,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,036.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92ba…19c9backed No | 34c | 38,011$13,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,095.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a41…492abacked Yes | 79c | 37,283$29,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,965.42 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1118…d320backed Yes | 70c | 37,124$25,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,201.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…aff6backed Yes | 65c | 35,314$23,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,211.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf48…6f13backed No | 1c | 35,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee66…ead4backed No | 36c | 35,000$12,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,469.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 15c | 35,000$5,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,257.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed No | 41c | 35,000$14,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,294.9 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…45b4backed Yes | 75c | 34,402$25,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,756.56 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…16efbacked Yes | 72c | 33,635$24,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,486.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 72c | 33,000$23,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,360 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec1f…946abacked No | 35c | 31,495$10,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,990 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a94…730fbacked Yes | 67c | 31,023$20,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,237.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked No | 26c | 30,534$7,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,800 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…f462backed Yes | 67c | 30,024$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,023.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…c7d7backed No | 1c | 30,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefd…cafebacked Yes | 71c | 29,911$21,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,614.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…e418backed No | 41c | 29,558$12,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,066.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05cb…e310backed Yes | 71c | 29,421$20,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,479.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df6…c1f3backed Yes | 63c | 28,213$17,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,322.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5847…5420backed Yes | 71c | 28,168$19,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,168.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d2…efb2backed Yes | 71c | 28,010$19,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,083.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 74c | 27,993$20,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,338.97 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10eb…848bbacked No | 41c | 27,733$11,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,471.82 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…0e54backed No | 15c | 27,321$3,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,998.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc58…5fd0backed Yes | 80c | 27,218$21,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,453.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…64cabacked No | 31c | 26,042$8,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,067 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…7babbacked Yes | 71c | 25,865$18,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,605.51 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe725…e5b9backed Yes | 76c | 25,775$19,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,245.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6764…49c4backed Yes | 70c | 25,639$17,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,689.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9803…8d18backed No | 36c | 25,287$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaacd…c1ebbacked No | 5c | 25,275$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcaa…5c0dbacked No | 35c | 25,168$8,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,809.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbef4…0c66backed No | 29c | 25,118$7,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,336.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked Yes | 70c | 25,000$17,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,550 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 61c | 24,584$15,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,508.76 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed Yes | 59c | 24,026$14,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,931.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?this page
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.