TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,555,476
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,928,449

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,555,476 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 7,336 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xffe9…1599backed Yes56c420,948$236,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184,724.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd22…ad91backed No31c408,232$128,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128,304.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b28…d19abacked Yes60c357,228$215,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142,090.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-44.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a59…07ddbacked Yes57c350,006$198,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151,136.26333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab82…abe5backed Yes69c329,803$227,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102,472.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94a4…6356backed Yes69c299,654$206,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,996.86742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca76…28b3backed No36c284,406$101,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,706.68933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc0e…cf87backed Yes64c268,669$171,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,693.54742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No45c214,936$97,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97,271.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c198,799$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.564440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x016a…848dbacked Yes61c179,808$109,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,155.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked No46c160,452$74,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,392.3812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.32per pick44cpaid-81%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes71c138,484$98,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,481.6414126.2%37 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d02…9489backed No35c129,255$44,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,901.8760%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked No38c120,608$46,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,262.8513334.6%46 W · 87 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aa8…5937backed Yes53c120,371$63,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,543.092100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9265…2cc0backed Yes65c111,429$71,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,439.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xded3…fe68backed Yes54c101,429$54,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,809.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f87…f277backed No33c100,000$33,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,107.881936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6d1…32b8backed No43c99,568$42,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,375.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-47.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes66c97,831$64,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,073.9943243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd39…109dbacked Yes70c96,254$67,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,235.926100%6 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77da…024abacked No30c91,483$27,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,44510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes75c90,000$67,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,8501650%8 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b62…4c23backed Yes69c81,016$55,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,283.023100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c68…6162backed No1c76,434$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes67c71,875$48,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,483.75955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick71cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb875…f2ddbacked No18c71,059$13,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,000.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes73c70,062$51,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,896.475664.3%36 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes61c66,739$40,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,094.414650%23 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1071…169bbacked Yes63c64,735$40,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,745.223100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd8f…6f11backed Yes77c63,069$48,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,751.091346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6edd…728cbacked Yes66c60,676$40,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,665.64560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+38.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf16b…cd12backed No21c58,414$11,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,990.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8633…a08dbacked Yes68c58,014$39,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,588.07683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ee…febbbacked No11c56,683$6,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,007.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed No32c55,092$17,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,427.273943.6%17 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x904f…c686backed Yes64c54,880$35,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,776.911040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa823…8a97backed No29c52,719$15,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,495.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc03…804cbacked No17c51,666$8,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,672.133636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes72c51,000$36,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,331.94450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa39c…08bcbacked Yes75c50,626$37,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,708.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef18…158bbacked No29c50,000$14,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes74c49,335$36,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,612.987761%47 W · 30 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba0b…459cbacked No29c49,279$14,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,065.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa527…4228backed Yes64c48,646$31,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,632.92785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.46per pick40cpaid+112.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed No23c47,219$10,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,785.817436.5%27 W · 47 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf93…2fd7backed Yes66c45,291$29,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,541.19666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked No0c45,200$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.62751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0d9…da5ebacked Yes69c44,718$31,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,718.431540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x744c…e37fbacked Yes72c44,595$32,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,368.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bf…451cbacked No48c44,321$21,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,30060%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0340…6907backed Yes56c43,115$24,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,7614100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+126.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe5dc…35f9backed No17c42,861$7,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,492.053040%12 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa39e…1d88backed No28c42,548$12,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,066.21612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-70.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4cd9…6c15backed No6c42,495$2,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,551.45147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc131…f290backed No1c42,000$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bdb…73d7backed Yes72c41,030$29,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,488.485100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee35…239cbacked No26c40,580$10,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,70020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6271…784ebacked No1c40,331$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.2940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d1…d24fbacked No28c40,129$11,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,364.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4e…1ba4backed Yes57c40,000$22,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,351.381866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29cd…972abacked No43c39,924$17,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,036.441040%4 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-46.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x92ba…19c9backed No34c38,011$13,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,095.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a41…492abacked Yes79c37,283$29,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,965.424100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1118…d320backed Yes70c37,124$25,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,201.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81e0…aff6backed Yes65c35,314$23,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,211.533100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf48…6f13backed No1c35,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4901414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-42.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee66…ead4backed No36c35,000$12,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,469.9650%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e42…49edbacked No15c35,000$5,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,257.52633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed No41c35,000$14,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,294.97828.2%22 W · 56 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+1.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe426…45b4backed Yes75c34,402$25,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,756.565100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6924…16efbacked Yes72c33,635$24,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,486.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes72c33,000$23,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,3606100%6 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec1f…946abacked No35c31,495$10,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,99020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a94…730fbacked Yes67c31,023$20,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,237.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked No26c30,534$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,8007027.1%19 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Yes67c30,024$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,023.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38f5…c7d7backed No1c30,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefd…cafebacked Yes71c29,911$21,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,614.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7e8…e418backed No41c29,558$12,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,066.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05cb…e310backed Yes71c29,421$20,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,479.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df6…c1f3backed Yes63c28,213$17,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,322.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+41.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5847…5420backed Yes71c28,168$19,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,168.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87d2…efb2backed Yes71c28,010$19,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,083.89475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked Yes74c27,993$20,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,338.971315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10eb…848bbacked No41c27,733$11,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,471.82110%0 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x682f…0e54backed No15c27,321$3,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,998.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc58…5fd0backed Yes80c27,218$21,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,453.84862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick37cpaid+68.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ce5…64cabacked No31c26,042$8,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,06730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1104…7babbacked Yes71c25,865$18,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,605.514100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe725…e5b9backed Yes76c25,775$19,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,245.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+27.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6764…49c4backed Yes70c25,639$17,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,689.31650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9803…8d18backed No36c25,287$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,00040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaacd…c1ebbacked No5c25,275$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,390.1911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-59.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcaa…5c0dbacked No35c25,168$8,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,809.9250%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbef4…0c66backed No29c25,118$7,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,336.250%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56eb…076abacked Yes70c25,000$17,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,550771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes61c24,584$15,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,508.768456%47 W · 37 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+24.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Yes59c24,026$14,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,931.81060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.