World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73e39c98045179951b7c527b749118771c10a15a32eee5ebc98f9e3650a69fe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,863,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,773,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,863,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 689 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a59…07ddbacked Yes | 1c | 648,256$4,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,722.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…d19abacked Yes | 1c | 569,451$5,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,905.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6421backed Yes | 0c | 360,656$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.63 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…cfb2backed Yes | 0c | 160,460$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e81bbacked Yes | 1c | 137,239$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6802…f774backed Yes | 0c | 120,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc432…254bbacked Yes | 0c | 114,010$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe9…1599backed Yes | 0c | 93,366$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 85,866$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.52 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 75,621$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.73 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…bedbbacked Yes | 0c | 70,772$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…76b4backed Yes | 0c | 70,643$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 0c | 61,904$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.26 | 58 | 3.4%2 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 0c | 60,683$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4d…3dcbbacked Yes | 0c | 60,467$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a0…0070backed Yes | 0c | 55,340$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0d…c5fdbacked Yes | 0c | 50,188$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.3 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8f…7783backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 1c | 49,513$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.1 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccc1…889dbacked Yes | 0c | 43,122$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked Yes | 1c | 41,460$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50cb…dc70backed Yes | 0c | 40,680$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbb…1aecbacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7043…1425backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes | 0c | 39,872$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.33 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…893abacked Yes | 1c | 37,322$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 35,629$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.98 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…b148backed Yes | 1c | 34,195$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 33,503$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f70…a2d1backed Yes | 0c | 33,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 31,108$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.94 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e8…1a9cbacked Yes | 0c | 29,980$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6446…ac48backed Yes | 0c | 29,004$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fd…43a6backed Yes | 0c | 27,996$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…cbe8backed Yes | 0c | 27,485$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…a005backed Yes | 1c | 26,886$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 0c | 26,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…1473backed Yes | 1c | 25,306$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807c…f1e3backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…575cbacked Yes | 1c | 24,375$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 24,050$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 89 | 2.2%2 W · 87 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78c…9aeabacked Yes | 0c | 23,862$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…4494backed Yes | 1c | 23,070$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…4da7backed Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,045$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 55 | 0%0 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed Yes | 0c | 20,001$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef4…43ecbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 1c | 19,121$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 8cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…1c1cbacked Yes | 2c | 19,096$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fd…03b6backed Yes | 0c | 19,045$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 1c | 18,394$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.04 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +72%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bd…9038backed Yes | 1c | 18,376$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…2718backed Yes | 1c | 18,244$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d9…6984backed Yes | 2c | 18,230$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5045…eb88backed Yes | 1c | 18,193$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa3…adf0backed Yes | 3c | 18,048$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…9df4backed Yes | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c7…acd0backed Yes | 1c | 17,909$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…3615backed Yes | 1c | 17,904$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…f3e6backed Yes | 1c | 17,890$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3337…1633backed Yes | 1c | 17,817$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…0f10backed Yes | 2c | 17,775$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb0…4f53backed Yes | 3c | 17,713$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b26…5b9fbacked Yes | 1c | 17,695$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf283…9215backed Yes | 2c | 17,636$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…c54dbacked Yes | 1c | 17,632$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc8…2699backed Yes | 0c | 17,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc226…6e85backed Yes | 1c | 17,491$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cb…4cf9backed Yes | 1c | 17,452$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe97d…4c58backed Yes | 1c | 17,234$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9548…3aacbacked Yes | 1c | 17,139$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832a…0eccbacked Yes | 1c | 17,139$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd8…6336backed Yes | 1c | 17,004$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569e…2d92backed Yes | 1c | 16,993$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3867…0b15backed Yes | 1c | 16,977$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cda…6712backed Yes | 1c | 16,959$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…c6aabacked Yes | 0c | 16,899$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08b…acc4backed Yes | 1c | 16,885$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…682abacked Yes | 2c | 16,872$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc31…8a14backed Yes | 2c | 16,852$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaac3…d2a9backed Yes | 1c | 16,763$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ba…45dfbacked Yes | 1c | 16,744$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa404…8116backed Yes | 0c | 16,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab9…13c5backed Yes | 1c | 16,665$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bf…8ae5backed Yes | 1c | 16,640$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd08…50f6backed Yes | 3c | 16,602$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace3…1827backed Yes | 1c | 16,592$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0708…2937backed Yes | 1c | 16,576$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc70e…a19bbacked Yes | 1c | 16,538$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17fb…ad24backed Yes | 1c | 16,525$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 16,513$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.49 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 0c | 16,461$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…add1backed Yes | 1c | 16,398$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00d…f05bbacked Yes | 3c | 16,382$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9b…6b5abacked Yes | 1c | 16,361$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b5…7cdfbacked Yes | 2c | 16,317$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…c7ebbacked Yes | 1c | 16,266$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906d…9fb4backed Yes | 1c | 16,262$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65de…cabcbacked Yes | 1c | 16,166$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 16,157$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?this page
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.