World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5599856587ed77cf40cf20608448180f6abdcc512027016bcdd68ad73fca3e9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,196,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,403,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,196,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Yes | 0c | 802,926$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…75a2backed Yes | 0c | 537,111$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c30…c42ebacked Yes | 0c | 499,990$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…bedbbacked Yes | 0c | 296,522$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.52 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…f83bbacked Yes | 0c | 257,634$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 195,986$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…07ddbacked Yes | 0c | 189,079$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8501…1146backed Yes | 0c | 183,188$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x773f…1c52backed Yes | 0c | 155,455$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6555…4f02backed Yes | 0c | 155,230$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 97,083$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 0c | 82,232$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.23 | 58 | 3.4%2 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668e…3131backed Yes | 0c | 73,352$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…153dbacked Yes | 0c | 66,125$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 61,122$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…0451backed Yes | 0c | 59,741$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7043…1425backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807c…f1e3backed Yes | 0c | 49,658$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7e…1f47backed Yes | 0c | 47,990$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 0c | 41,659$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbb…1aecbacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 0c | 25,934$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a21…fec3backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb9…e328backed Yes | 0c | 24,495$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…d19abacked Yes | 0c | 20,497$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58fd…43a6backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…5f3abacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…a782backed Yes | 0c | 13,760$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 13,221$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 55 | 0%0 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 0c | 12,762$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…c6aabacked Yes | 0c | 11,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…e1b7backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 10,999$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a50…34dabacked Yes | 0c | 10,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 0c | 10,391$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0d…c5fdbacked Yes | 0c | 10,332$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038d…d501backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -95.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3c…b892backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401a…9e00backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…6d22backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba37…84f3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…f7ecbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c11…778fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,329$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3470…d002backed Yes | 0c | 8,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…5967backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,586$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f2…f1c9backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 7,218$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793d…3c28backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 6,515$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7631…e6aebacked Yes | 0c | 5,549$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…b3fbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…e2f0backed Yes | 0c | 5,068$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a57…14a1backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a1…c1a2backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7572…ab0fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 4,626$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…3bcdbacked Yes | 0c | 4,396$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb58c…6900backed Yes | 0c | 3,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 0c | 3,240$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?this page
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.